Explained: What is the new Bharat Forecast System and how does it work?

Bharat Forecast System, developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, has now become operational after three years of testing since its launch in 2022

The Ministry of Science on Monday launched the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), saying it is the world’s most precise indigenously developed weather forecasting model. The system has become operational after three years of testing since its launch in 2022.

 

Let's understand in detail what the Bharat Forecast System is and how it is more accurate, fast, and effective than the previously used models.

 

What is Bharat Forecast System?

 

Bharat Forecast System, developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, is a weather forecasting and monitoring system which uses high-end computer systems and satellite imagery. The use of the supercomputer 'Arka' makes it possible to deliver the results at the highest possible speed, which is faster than any other forecasting system in the world. The supercomputer has a capacity of 11.77 petaflops and a storage capacity of 33 petabytes.

 

According to Parthasarathy Mukhopadhayay, one of the researchers involved in the project, the data from a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars (a system of high-resolution weather monitoring stations) from across the country will be used to run the BFS model. With this, BFS is now able to deliver more localised forecasts and nowcasts (forecasts of present weather conditions immediately).

 

The number of Doppler radars will gradually rise to 100, enabling the weather office to issue nowcasts—short-term weather forecasts for the next two hours—nationwide.

 

What makes BFS better than any other forecast system?

 

The modified BFS system came up with a lot of new upgrades in comparison to the previously used forecast systems. However, BFS’s speed, accuracy, and much more localised predictions make it the best forecasting system in the world.

 

Speed: Suryachandra Rao, Director of IITM-Pune, stated that earlier weather forecasting models required around 12 to 14 hours to produce predictions for a specific area. However, with advancements in high-performance computing systems under the central government’s ‘Mission Mausam’, forecasts can now be made within four to six hours.

 

Accuracy: The use of high-end computers not only improved its speed but also accuracy. "This significant milestone represents a major leap in India's self-reliance in meteorological sciences, enabling more accurate and granular weather forecasts up to panchayat level for disaster risk reduction, agriculture, water resource management, and public safety," a senior official from the Earth Sciences Ministry said, as quoted by The Economic Times.

 

Furthermore, the system has demonstrated a 30 per cent improvement in accuracy for extreme rainfall events, which are frequent during the monsoon season, compared to existing models. It has also shown significant enhancement in predicting cyclone paths.

 

Localised predictions: Previously operated weather forecasting systems used to forecast weather patterns over a 12 km grid. However, in a much more localised way, now BFS is able to predict weather conditions in a 6 km grid. This means the current model can forecast weather systems down to the village and panchayat level, with an improvement of nearly 64 per cent in prediction accuracy.

 

Weather forecast for all

 

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, stated the launch is part of the Centre’s initiative to make weather forecasts more accessible and beneficial for everyone.

 

With the successful integration of this new system, India has become the only country to operate a global forecast system with such high resolution in real time.

 

The system was officially handed over to the IMD by Minister of Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh, on Monday.