India's battery electric vehicle market to grow threefold next year: S&P

Battery electric vehicle production is projected to hit 377K units in 2025, says S&P Global Mobility

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to see nearly a threefold increase in production in calendar year (CY) 2025, driven by major electric car launches. This marks a rebound after muted demand in India in CY 2024.

 

According to S&P Global Mobility estimates, BEV production in CY 2024 is expected to reach 130,000 vehicles, capturing a market share of only 2.6 per cent of overall light vehicle (LV) production (including internal combustion engine, electric, and other types), up from 2.1 per cent in CY 2023, when BEV production stood at just over 100,000.

 

S&P projects that BEV production will rise to 377,000 units in CY 2025, driven by major launches from leading carmakers such as Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tata Motors, and JSW MG Motor. Consequently, BEVs’ market share in total LV production is estimated to reach 6.6 per cent — surpassing the inflexion point required for electric passenger vehicles (PVs) to achieve sustained growth. The global inflexion point for electric PVs is considered to be over 5 per cent.

 

In addition to PVs, S&P’s LV classification includes light commercial vehicles below 6 tonnes.

 

Several major players are gearing up for launches in India. Industry estimates indicate that up to 19 new EV models are slated for release in 2025.

 

For example, Maruti Suzuki has already introduced its eVitara for the global market, which is expected to be domestically available for over ~20 lakh in April-June 2025. Both M&M and Tata Motors also have launch lineups planned for CY 2025.

 

Hyundai Motor India will unveil the electric version of its bestselling Creta in January 2025 at the Bharat Mobility Global Expo.

 

The research agency’s projections are based on several assumptions: that the production-linked incentive scheme will gain traction, charging infrastructure — currently a major hurdle for customers — will develop adequately, and there will be advancements in battery technology.

 

It also expects new players entering the electric vehicle (EV) market and increased availability of battery swapping and leasing options.

 

S&P also forecasts that by CY 2030, light EV production will reach 1.4 million units, representing a 19.8 per cent share of overall LV sales. This figure, however, falls short of the government’s initial target of 30 per cent by that period.

 

Nevertheless, S&P expects the government’s target to be achieved by 2035, with projected production translating into a market share of 27 per cent.