Global growth momentum has been sustained in the first quarter of 2024 and the outlook for global trade is turning positive. Treasury yields and mortgage rates are ticking up in major economies as expectations of interest rate cuts are being pared. In India, conditions are shaping up for an extension of a trend upshift in real GDP growth, backed by strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments. CPI inflation has gravitated to 4.9 per cent in March after averaging 5.1 per cent in the preceding two months. In the near term, however, extreme weather events may pose a risk to inflation along with prolonged geo-political tensions that could keep crude oil prices volatile.
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