Accumulate Gold on dips in H2CY2026; next bull likely to start in 2027

For the second-half of 2026, upside for Gold and Silver seems to be capped around $4,400 and $90, says Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities:

Gold outlook for H2CY2026 by Kotak Securities

  The pullback from the January peak near $5,600 is a corrective consolidation, not a trend reversal — after every major run-up, gold has historically corrected 30–40 per cent before its next leg higher.  For the second half of 2026, we expect gold to trade broadly between $3,400 and $4,400 in spot dollar terms.  On the downside, $3,900 is the first major support, followed by $3,600 and then $3,400. On the upside, gains are likely capped near $4,400; a sustained close above that level would turn the medium-to-long-term bias decisively positive and confirm the correction is complete.  We would treat dips into the $3,600–$3,900 zone as accumulation opportunities rather than a reason to turn bearish. 

Silver outlook for H2CY2026 by Kotak Securities

  Silver remains the higher-beta play and is consolidating after its own sharp run toward $116.  For the second half of 2026, we see a broad $60–$88 range. Supports lie at $70, then $64–$65, then $58–$60; resistance sits at $80, then $88–$90.  A sustained close above $90 would re-open the path back toward the highs. Investors should expect wider swings than in gold, in either direction.   

Broader view on Gold, Silver

  The structural view — 2027 and beyond. Once this correction completes, we expect the next secular bull leg to begin from 2027, led by a turn in the Fed cycle from hawkish to dovish.  Gold's post-correction bull runs have historically lasted two-to-three years and roughly doubled the price — from around the current cap area, that points to a long-term objective near $9,000.  This is underpinned by a change of polarity: gold's inflation-adjusted 1980 high, near $3,400–$3,600, capped the market for more than four decades and was decisively broken in 2025. That former ceiling now becomes a floor, and we do not expect prices to sustain below it.  For silver, the parallel long-term objective is around $150 — broadly the inflation-adjusted equivalent of its 1980 peak of roughly $50.  The structural driver is the "three Ds": debasement, de-dollarization and de-globalization. A structural devaluation of the dollar is under way and should accelerate from 2027 as de-dollarization enters its mature phase, supporting both metals in dollar terms over the next three-to-four years.  Views onses from Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities:  (Disclaimer: This article is by Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities. Views expressed are his own.)