Fastest ever Rs 1-lakh/kg rise for silver on MCX; hits Rs 4-lakh mark

Despite the sharp run, analysts expect silver prices to continue their upward march amid intermittent corrections, which they feel will be bought into by investors.

Amid a rush by investors towards safe-haven assets, silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for March delivery crossed the ₹4 lakh per kg mark on Thursday, rising more than 7 per cent to touch an intraday high of about ₹4,16,113 a kg. Gold futures also climbed past the ₹1.80 lakh per 10 gram level earlier in the session, before easing slightly to trade around ₹1.75 lakh. 

The white metal had breached the ₹3 lakh a kg mark in the futures market only on January 19 this year, barely a month after topping ₹2 lakh on December 17, 2025.

 

The rally from ₹3 lakh to ₹4 lakh a kg on the MCX took just seven trading sessions, marking the fastest ₹1 lakh jump on record for silver, according to market data. 

In international markets, spot silver prices moved above $119 an ounce. So far this year, silver has delivered returns of more than 66 per cent, driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes and concerns over supply. In India, spot silver was priced at ₹3,79,988 per kg, up nearly 65 per cent year to date.   

The surge in the prices of gold -- which traded around $5,533 an ounce in global markets and about ₹174,638 per 10 grams in India -- and silver on Thursday followed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting. Yields on the US 10-year Treasury initially jumped to 4.897 per cent before easing later in the day. 

Up over 28 per cent this January, gold in the international spot market was on track for its best monthly performance since 1973. 

What stood out in the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement, according to Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives and research at Samco Securities, was his dismissal of concerns about the Fed’s credibility, even as precious metals have rallied relentlessly for months despite elevated bond yields. 

“The rally, especially in gold, does indicate a degree of concern about the Fed’s independence and counterparty risk,” Sheth said. “The S&P 500-to-gold ratio dropped 20 per cent in January to its lowest level since October 2013. This indicates that trust in financial assets is eroding rapidly, with market participants favouring hard assets such as commodities over softer assets like bonds and equities.”

 

More headroom

 

Despite the sharp runup, analysts expect silver prices to extend gains, albeit with intermittent corrections that they believe investors are likely to buy into.

 

Tariffs are reshaping prices, margins and growth prospects across the global economy. When the legal and political outlook remains uncertain, investors seek to protect purchasing power, and silver becomes a natural beneficiary of that demand, analysts said. Beyond macroeconomic and political drivers, silver is also supported by strong real-economy fundamentals. 

 

The rally in silver, said Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere group, a global consulting firm with $14 billion under advisement, still has significant room to run. Structural demand, constrained supply and an investment environment shaped by policy uncertainty, he said, point to materially higher prices. Volatility, he added, is inherent in any major repricing, and sharp swings should be expected, though the broader direction matters more than short-term fluctuations.

 

“Our projection places silver at $200 an ounce by the end of this year (up about 70 per cent above current levels) and that outlook reflects market dynamics already in motion,” Green said. “Confidence in monetary stewardship matters. When independence is called into question, investors turn to stores of value that sit outside political influence. Silver tends to benefit in precisely those conditions.”

 

On the domestic exchange, MCX silver continues to show high-beta outperformance following a strong breakout, said Ponmudi R, chief executive of Enrich Money. Minor pullbacks, he added, are being absorbed with ease. The rising price channel remains steep and intact, with the 20-day exponential moving average near ₹377,630 acting as strong dynamic support. “Any decline towards the ₹3,50,000-₹3,60,000 zone should continue to be viewed as a strong accumulation opportunity within the prevailing uptrend,” Ponmudi added.