Kumbh Mela 2025: Time for stock market cleansing? Here's what history shows

Analysis of the market data by SAMCO Securities shows that the BSE Sensex delivered a negative return during the last 6 Maha Kumbh Mela periods, followed by a net gain in the subsequent 6 months.

The Maha Kumbh Mela 2025, one of the largest religious festivals in India, commenced today with as per reports more than 4 million people taking the first holy dip. The Kumbh Mela attracts millions of devotees from all over the world to take the 'Holy Dip'. This ritual is believed to cleanse the soul and attain moksha (spiritual salvation).   Meanwhile, here's an interesting analogy of the Indian stock market behaviour during the Maha Kumbh Mela period, done by SAMCO Securities.  Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, has analysed the market performance during the last 20 years wherein the Kumbh Mela was celebrated on six occasions.  The study shows that the BSE Sensex returns during all of these six instances have been negative from the start to end date of Kumbh Mela. The net result for the Sensex during Kumbh has been a net loss of 3.4 per cent, while the average length of the Kumbh festival in terms of number of days was 52.    The biggest loss for the Sensex was registered during the Kumbh Mela of 2015; i.e. the period from July 2015 to September 2015 - wherein the BSE benchmark index plunged 8.3 per cent. The second biggest fall was registered in the April 2021 Kumbh period, with the Sensex down 4. per cent. 

 

     Further, Apurva Sheth of SAMCO Securities highlights how the Sensex has delivered positive returns in 5 out of the 6 periods in the six months post Kumbh Mela. The average gains in the six-month period post Kumbh Mela stands tall at 8 per cent.  This biggest rally was witnessed post 2021 Kumbh Mela, with the Sensex soaring nearly 29 per cent following the hefty 16.8 per cent gain in 2010 period. The BSE benchmark index, however, logged a negative return of 2.5 per cent in the 2015 post Kumbh period.      The analyst cautions that there could have been several reasons behind this peculiar market behaviour during and after the Kumbh period.  Investors might draw lessons from this correlation, considering the historical underperformance as a signal to adopt a more cautious strategy during Kumbh Mela. Whether this phenomenon is driven by celestial mechanics, cultural dynamics, or economic patterns, it serves as a reminder that markets are intricately tied to human beliefs, behaviours, and even the cosmos, Apurva Sheth said in his concluding remark.