Markets react strongly to geopolitics but eventually move on: Jim Rogers

Oil prices, Rogers said, could definitely cross $100 a barrel again, especially if the geopolitical developments continue.

As the global financial markets grapple with geopolitical developments in West Asia, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, tells Puneet Wadhwa in a telephonic interview that he would be looking for exciting new investment opportunities in India because the country has an increasingly promising future. Edited excerpts:

 

What is your view on the current geopolitical conflict and their impact on financial markets? Is this time any different, and how soon do you think markets will recover?

 

We have seen many geopolitical conflicts over the years that have impacted market sentiment. I don’t think this situation is fundamentally different. Markets often react strongly to such developments, but eventually they adjust and move on. 

 

That said, the US markets had gone up sharply in the last year and a correction is due. I have sold everything in the US because I'm expecting a big correction (in the US markets) in the next year. Most markets typically find a reason to correct, but the main reason (for a correction) is because stocks go up for a long time get overpriced.

 

Given the uncertainty, should investors stay away from the markets or is it time to invest?

 

Everyone has to make their own investment decisions. Personally, I have chosen to sell and hold cash in US dollars for now. Many people still consider the US dollar a safe haven—although I’m not convinced it truly is—but the perception remains strong.

 

Is the best phase over for gold and silver?

 

I own silver and recently bought more last week. If prices fall further, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more. My perspective on gold and silver is very long term—I buy them and put them away with the hope that my children will own them someday. Everyone should have some gold and silver as protection in difficult times.

 

Both gold and silver had risen in 2025, but I don’t know how long the rally will last. I’m not good at market timing, and I don’t even try to time gold and silver rallies. My approach is simply to own them for the long-term.

 

What is your view on the artificial intelligence (AI) theme? When do you think investors might begin questioning the returns on the massive spending by companies on AI?

 

Throughout history we have seen many transformative technologies—electricity, railroads, automobiles, and others. AI is another such development and will certainly change the world. If you know which AI companies will succeed, then you should invest—but you must truly understand the technology and the people behind it before investing. I personally don’t know which companies will come out on top as of now, though I’m certain some will.

 

What is your view on the Indian markets?

 

I have noticed attractive investment opportunities in India over the years. What stands out today is that something seems to have changed in Delhi. Indian policymakers now appear to recognize that success and prosperity are positive things. That shift in mindset is encouraging, and I’m very impressed by it.

 

Do you currently have investments in India? And, is it a good time for Indian investors to start buying?

 

No, I do not hold any Indian shares at the moment. However, if the markets decline, I hope I’m smart enough to buy then. I don’t know which specific companies investors should buy. But I will certainly be looking for exciting new investment opportunities in India as the country has an increasingly promising future. India has a large population and many very intelligent people, which gives it strong long-term potential.

 

What about China? Do you think Chinese equities could outperform Indian equities over the next six to twelve months?

 

It is difficult to predict that right now for that time frame. I have owned Chinese shares for a long time and haven’t sold them. If Chinese markets decline, I will buy more. I believe China could have a bull-market that lasts many years, especially if it continues making significant changes.

 

Where are we in the current commodity cycle?

 

Yes, commodities still have potential. However, agriculture might currently be cheaper than metals. If young people are looking for opportunities, they might consider agriculture as well as metals.

 

What is your outlook on crude oil? Could it cross $100 a barrel again given the current geopolitical developments?

 

Well, I certainly wouldn’t recommend selling crude oil. Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves. Because of that, oil has a good long-term future. It could definitely cross $100 a barrel again, especially if the geopolitical developments continue.