Pivot points to track on 5 private, PSU bank stocks ahead of RBI policy

SBI, Bank of India, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and PSB are seen trading at their respective make-or-break points post the recent stock market fall. Here are the key levels to watch out for.

The fifth bi-monthly Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting starts today. The RBI will be announcing the MPC policy decision on Wednesday, October 09. This is the first RBI meeting after the US Federal Reserve 50 basis point rate cut announced last month.

On the macro data front, retail inflation has remained below the higher-end of the RBI's target of 4 per cent in the last two months, but Q1 GDP growth dropped below the Central Banker's target. 

Given these dynamics, experts expect the new MPC to maintain the status quo on rates, the monetary policy stance could, however, shift to 'Neutral' with a more dovish tone. READ ANALYSIS

Meanwhile, equity markets seem to have entered a phase of correction with the benchmark Nifty 50 down nearly 5 per cent from its peak of 26,277 in mere five trading sessions. Similarly, the Bank Nifty has plunged 5.4 per cent from its summit.

Against these, several banking stocks, both from the PSU (state-run) and private segment are seen trading near crucial levels. Here are 5 such banking stocks with key levels to track ahead of the RBI policy decision.

HDFC Bank

Current Price: Rs 1,645

Pivot Point: Rs 1,642

Support: Rs 1,627; Rs 1607

Resistance: Rs 1,660; Rs 1,700

HDFC Bank has declined nearly 8 per cent from its recent peak of Rs 1,788. The stock is seen trading below its short-term moving average - the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) and the 50-DMA on the daily chart. However, on the weekly scale the stock is seen testing support around its 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 1,642.

The medium-term chart suggests that as long as the 20-WMA is protected HDFC Bank stock may attempt a bounce back in the near-term. As such, the stock can potentially jump back to Rs 1,735 levels, with interim resistance seen at Rs 1,660 and Rs 1,700 levels. 

In case, the stock breaks the 20-WMA support, it could slip towards the 100-DMA at Rs 1,627 or towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale at Rs 1,607. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

ICICI Bank

Current Price: Rs 1,251

Pivot Point: Rs 1,210

Support: Rs 1,231

Resistance: Rs 1,278; Rs 1,315

ICICI Bank is seen holding above its 50-DMA on the daily scale, which stands at Rs 1,231. Similarly, a key support, the 20-WMA of ICICI Bank stands at Rs 1,210. The stock has not broken 20-WMA support since December 2023; hence shall remain a pivot point for the stock going ahead. 

On the upside, ICICI Bank may look to bounce back to Rs 1,325 levels; with interim resistance seen at Rs 1,278 and Rs 1,315 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

SBI

Current Price: Rs 785

Pivot Point: Rs 780

Support: Rs 760

Resistance: Rs 825

SBI is seen trading below its key moving averages on the daily scale. However, on the medium-term chart the stock is seen consolidating in a range of Rs 760 - Rs 820 over the last five weeks; with recurring support seen around Rs 780 levels - thus making it a pivot point.

As long as the stock holds above Rs 780, it can potentially attempt a rally towards Rs 885; with interim resistance seen at Rs 825. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

Bank of India (BoI) 

Current Price: Rs 105

Pivot Point: Rs 101.40

Support: Rs 77.70

Resistance: Rs 114; Rs 117

Bank of India stock is seen trading below the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale, which indicates likely immediate resistance at Rs 107. The stock, however, seems within reach of its major support the 100-WMA which stands at Rs 101.40. BoI stock has held this long-term moving average for almost two years now. Below which, the next significant support stands adrift at Rs 77.70 levels.

As long as this support holds, BoI can attempt to bounce back to Rs 120 levels; with interim resistance expected around Rs 114 and Rs 117 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

PSB

Current Price: Rs 51.20

Pivot Point: Rs 51

Support: Rs 47.70

Resistance: Rs 55.10; Rs 56.20

PSB stock is also seen trading below the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale. The stock is trading in a fairly oversold zone on the daily scale, and close to its super trend line support (Rs 51) on the weekly chart. The stock has not violated this key support since February 2024.

As long as this support holds, the stock can attempt a pullback towards Rs 64-odd levels; with interim resistance seen at Rs 55.10 and Rs 56.20. Support below Rs 51 stands at Rs 47.70. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART