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The three-day meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel started on Monday amid expectations of a status quo on the benchmark repo rate, with the Monetary Policy Committee slated to announce its decision on August 5. As global uncertainties and inflation risks persist, most experts expect the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to adopt a cautious approach despite resilient domestic economic growth. In June, the Reserve Bank had kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent and adopted a cautious wait-and-watch stance as policymakers assessed the fallout of the West Asia conflict. The central bank had raised the retail inflation estimate for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent from its earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent, largely due to mounting input costs, triggered by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to retail rates of petrol and diesel. It lowered its GDP forecast for FY27 to 6.6 per cent from the 6.9 per cent estimated in April. RBI Governor Sanjay
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged in its August monetary policy review on elevated inflation risks and pending the closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme, a poll of 10 economists and treasury heads has revealed. Most respondents anticipate that the central bank will maintain its policy stance as 'Neutral' while adopting a hawkish tone amid rising inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices and an uneven monsoon. Economists said the central bank will remain in a "wait-and-watch" mode as it assesses the evolving inflation outlook. "As of now, trimmed core inflation remains benign and suggests a status quo is the best policy option for the time being, with caution being expressed through the policy tone," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. In recent media outings, Governor Sanjay Malhotra has reiterated that inflation will be the central bank's foremost priority going ahead, pointing out that progress