RIL Q4FY24 preview: Top metrics that analysts will watch out for today

Reliance Industries (RIL) stock price inched up ahead of its March quarter results (Q4FY24) on Monday, April 22. As of 12:10 pm, the shares were trading 0.23 per cent higher at Rs 2,948.40, as compared to S&P BSE Sensex, which was trading 0.55 per cent higher at 73,487.50 levels. 

Notably, Reliance Industries’ stock has soared 30.40 per cent in the past six months.

Ahead of its Q4 results, analysts believe that Reliance Industries earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) will rise largely on better standalone performance and steady growth in digital services and organised retail.

Here’s what brokerages are saying about Reliance Industries Q4 results:

ICICI Securities: Analysts said that Reliance Industries is likely to see a sharp jump in its oil to chemical (OTC) segment earnings QoQ with an estimated $1/bbl QoQ improvement in gross refining margins (GRMs), better petchem spreads and higher refining throughput (Q3 had a shutdown at some refinery units). RJio is expected to deliver approximately 2 per cent QoQ rise in EBITDA, with RIL’s retail EBITDA growing 1.4 per cent QoQ. 

Overall, consolidated EBITDA may jump 5 per cent QoQ and profit after tax (PAT) can rise approximately 6 per cent QoQ in Q4FY24E.

Kotak Institutional Equities

Kotak Institutional Equities analysts, however, expect consolidated EBITDA to increase by approximately 4 per cent QoQ, largely on better standalone performance and steady growth in digital services and organised retail.

They expect RIL’s standalone EBITDA to increase approximately 8 per cent QoQ on a sequential improvement in refining margins. In exploration and production (E&P), analysts suggest approximately 6 per cent QoQ decline in earnings before interest, tax (EBIT) likely on higher costs, analysts highlighted.

Elara Capital

Reliance Industries’ GRM is expected to be $14/bbl versus $13.7/bbl in Q3FY24 and $18.4/bbl in Q4FY23. This can be attributed to the surge in oil prices. 

The company may see an 11 per cent YoY growth in consolidated EBITDA, led by 4 per cent standalone EBITDA growth (refining/petchem/E&P), 42 per cent growth in retail EBITDA and 11 per cent growth in digital services’ (telecom) EBITDA, analysts said.

Nuvama

Analysts at Nuvama expect an 8 per cent YoY/2 per cent QoQ rise in RIL’s consolidated EBITDA on a strong performance across verticals, partially offset by weak O2C. 

However, Nuvama anticipates O2C EBITDA to fall 8 per cent YoY on weak refining (GRMs -10 per cent YoY/ +37 per cent QoQ) and weak petchem. Additionally, analysts suggest oil and gas EBITDA may rise 41 per cent YoY on 50 per cent YoY production rise. 

Systematix Institutional Equities

A strong profit from O2C business is likely to boost the company’s EBITDA/PAT by 5.8 per cent/3.2 per cent QoQ. 35 per cent increase in GRM and higher crude throughput is expected to increase O2C EBITDA by 15 per cent QoQ to Rs162 bn (flattish YoY). We further estimate -2 per cent/1 per cent/2.6 per cent QoQ growth in EBITDA in upstream/Retail/Digital Services businesses. We have kept average revenue per user (ARPU) largely unchanged at Rs 181.7 in Jio telecom business and expect a healthy 250 new retail outlets addition.