Vedanta Q3 Preview: Here's what to expect from mining major in December qtr

Vedanta Q3 Preview: Mining giant Vedanta will announce its December quarter of financial year 2025 (Q3FY25) results on Friday, January 31, 2025. 

 

A day ahead of the results, Vedanta shares were in demand, as the scrip rose up to 1.62 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 437.60. 

 

However, at 1:20 PM, Vedanta share price was off day’s high, trading 0.56 per cent higher at Rs 433 per share. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 0.31 per cent higher at 76,772.32 levels.

 

Vedanta's Q3 FY25 earnings are expected to reflect strong performance across several key segments, driven by higher commodity prices. 

 

Analysts predict a 6-7 per cent Q-o-Q increase in Ebitda, largely supported by higher base metal prices, particularly aluminum and zinc. The zinc division is set to see an uptick in earnings, while aluminum is expected to continue its positive trend, aided by higher LME prices. However, the oil and gas division is likely to face a decline due to lower volumes. 

 

Given this, here’s what top brokerages expect from Vedanta’s Q3FY25 results:

 

Kotak Institutional Equities

 

Vedanta is expected to report a 6 per cent Q-o-Q increase in Ebitda (up 22 per cent Y-o-Y), driven by higher commodity prices, particularly in zinc/silver and aluminum. Key segment forecasts include Aluminum Ebitda up 4.6 per cent Q-o-Q (+51 per cent Y-o-Y) on higher LME prices, Oil and Gas division facing a 9.5 per cent Q-o-Q decline in Ebitda due to lower volumes, and Zinc India Ebitda rising 7.4 per cent Q-o-Q on the back of higher zinc/silver prices.  

 

Thus, revenue is projected at Rs 40,561.7 crore (up 14.1 per cent Y-o-Y), Ebitda at Rs 10,418 crore (up 22.1 per cent Y-o-Y), and profit at Rs 3,254.1 crore (up 62 per cent Y-o-Y).

 

Nuvama

 

According to analysts at Nuvama, Vedanta is likely to report a 7 per cent Q-o-Q increase in Ebitda, driven by higher aluminum and zinc prices (up 8-10 per cent Q-o-Q). Alumina costs are expected to raise aluminum CoP by 9 per cent Q-o-Q, though zinc costs remain controlled. Iron ore Ebitda is forecast to rise 73 per cent Q-o-Q, driven by a 45 per cent volume increase. 

 

Considering these factors, analysts project core PAT at Rs 3,953.5 crore (up 96 per cent Y-o-Y), revenue at Rs 38,843.9 crore (up 9 per cent Y-o-Y), and Ebitda at Rs 11,006.4 crore (up 29 per cent Y-o-Y). 

 

Antique Stock Broking

 

Antique Stock Broking analysts expect consolidated revenue to grow 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 37,395.1 crore, supported by higher aluminum segment revenues. Ebitda is projected to rise 23 per cent Y-o-Y and 6.8 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 10,492.5 crore, led by stronger performances in zinc and aluminum, partially offset by weaker oil, gas, and iron ore results. 

 

Meanwhile, adjusted profit is anticipated to decline 10.3 per cent Y-o-Y and 0.6 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 3,171.9 crore (down from Rs 3,535 crore in Q3FY24 and Rs 3,192 crore in Q2FY25).