An election snapshot: No wave, voter apathy and a dead candidate

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is known for micro-managing elections based on gathering political intelligence right up to the booth level. That is the image.

The reality is that its Moradabad Lok Sabha candidate died a day after polling in his constituency. That Kunwar Sarvesh Singh had cancer was an open secret. But he managed to keep it from the party by checking out of hospital to attend two election rallies by Union Home Minister Amit Shah and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

Sarvesh Singh, by all accounts a Bahubali (muscleman), is said to have created a larger-than-life image. The apocryphal story is that he assumed the title of ‘Kunwar’ (normally used by erstwhile Rajput Jagirdars and Rajas), constructed a large house he called his palace (mahal), decorated it with red sandstone latticework (jaalis) windows from Rajasthan and gave audience sitting on a large wooden chair carved with lion-head armrests. His constituents were awed by him. His gunmen let the barrels of their weapons rest visibly on the widows of the car he was travelling in.

He represented the Thakurdwara assembly constituency of Moradabad five times. His inflated image, inducing fear and insecurity among the voters, personified a path often taken by politicians, including some in the leadership of the BJP.

Normally, a straw indicates the direction of the wind, but there is a strange stillness in the air in Moradabad. For an election said to be about Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at least in this constituency, there was no palpable Modi wave.

It was unusual that the workers of the BJP and the opposing Samajwadi Party (SP)—the two main parties in the contest—were apprehensive that their respective candidates might lose and not dare claim outright victory. Unlike the 2019 or 2014 elections, then, this might turn into a near “normal” election.

The voter turnout in Moradabad was about 60 per cent -- down 5.4 percentage points compared to 2019. The population of Moradabad consists of about 52 per cent Hindus, and 47 per cent Muslims (the rest Jains, Sikhs, Buddhists, etc.).

BJP booth agents complained of Hindu voters' apathy in turning up at the polling centres, blaming the summer heat. In Muslim-dominated areas, however, brisk voting continued until 6 PM, with burqa-clad women running to join the queues before polling closed. Many stood outside the polling centres, complaining that family members' names were missing from the voter lists.

Local community leaders claimed that more than 70 per cent of Muslim voters turned up to vote, while the proportion of Hindu voters was estimated to be only 30 per cent to 40 per cent. If true, this could be disconcerting for the BJP.

Despite the SP dropping the Muslim incumbent Moradabad MP, S T Hasan, for Ruchi Veera, the fear that this would anger the Muslims was misplaced. The Muslim voters said they were voting for the SP to keep the BJP out; Veera’s religion was immaterial. Indeed, many pointed out gleefully that because she is Hindu and Bania by caste, her candidature had somewhat dampened the enthusiasm of the Hindu voters for the BJP.

They said they were not communal despite the BJP branding them as such. “We have always voted for secular parties from the Congress in the past to the SP now. Muslims in UP have even rejected Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM party, although he talks well, he eventually cuts into the secular vote. We will go with any national party which looks after our interests. Let the BJP prove that it looks after our interests.”

A few hours after the polling was over at the wedding of a local Muslim businessman’s son, youngsters claimed that Ruchi Veera would win. Some alleged that several Muslim voters were missing from the voters’ list because the administration had instructed Booth Level Officers to ‘reduce’ Muslim voters by 25 per cent. Others said every eligible voter in their family had voted.

However, the young lads seemed gung-ho by what they saw as visible change within the Muslim community in the region -- nearly seven out of 10 youngsters, they said, chose a college education. One young architect said that earlier, when choosing a groom, the elders would enquire about his trade, but now they asked, “Ladka kitna padha hai (How educated is the boy)?” They celebrated a 70 per cent rise in Muslim youngsters qualifying for the civil services this year. A record 51 aspirants from the community cracked the civil service exams in 2024 – still only 5 per cent of the total selection and nowhere near their 14 per cent share in the population, but a welcome portent, they felt.

Yet the wedding guests were in agreement that even if the INDIA bloc candidate wins from Moradabad, the BJP would still win the state. “Muslims are voting for change but they will not be able to change the overall results in Uttar Pradesh,” a young businessman said. All that the Muslim voters can hope for is to reduce the BJP’s clout “to prevent more harm”.

This was also the concern of the Dalit voters who were disturbed by the BJP slogan “Abki baar, 400 paar (This time around, more than 400 seats)”. They feared that with such numbers in Parliament, the BJP would change the Constitution “given to them by Baba Sahib Ambedkar”. Their apprehension was that the Constitutional reservation in government jobs for the Scheduled Castes would be removed. So they, too, were believed to be rallying behind the INDIA bloc candidate this time. Still, BJP workers hoped that the Bahujan Samaj Candidate, Irafan Saifi, would draw away at least 100,000 Dalit votes, ensuring their own candidate’s victory.

The BJP booth-level worker's despondency was evident: “We have been knocking on the door of Hindu voters to come and vote, yet there is only a trickle. We are working as hard as we can.” Then he laconically added, “Baaki machine to hai naa (then there is the EVM, of course).”

Machine or no machine, the BJP’s Moradabad candidate is now no more. Even if the dead candidate wins in Moradabad, the BJP will be one seat less in UP, till the re-election.