Speed dating by Nitish and why the BJP embraced him

It is quite likely that Kumar expects to benefit as member of the NDA from the religious fervour built by the inauguration of the Ram temple, Centre's welfare schemes and PM's larger-than-life persona

Normally, chief ministers resign to fight another day. However, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, leader of the Janata Dal United, or JD (U), is different. He has resigned four times in the last decade, only to be sworn into the same job within hours.

In yet another flip-flop, he rejoined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Sunday. Not for nothing is Sushasan Babu (Mr Good Governance) being ridiculed as Paltu Ram (Mr Somersault).

The latest turnaround is the result of compulsions, both of his old adversary and newfound love, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and of his own thwarted ambition.

A recent internal survey by the BJP reportedly showed that the party's prospects in Bihar were disappointing. The survey reportedly showed that the NDA's tally in the coming general election in Bihar might not exceed 25 seats. In 2019, the BJP-led NDA won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, including 16 MPs of the JD (U), which was then part of the alliance.

In 2024, the BJP will be vulnerable in two electorally significant states – Bihar and Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, the NDA had previously secured 41 out of 48 seats in the state in partnership with the united Shiv Sena, with whom it subsequently fell out. To shore up its prospects there, the BJP first split the Shiv Sena and then the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), backing ambitious leaders to precipitate revolts. That operation in Maharashtra may continue to develop.

Also Read: How Nitish Kumar became longest-serving Bihar CM over many political storms

However, Bihar also demanded urgent attention. The Nitish-led JD (U) had broken ranks with the NDA to lead the state government in alliance with the RJD, Congress and the Left parties 18 months ago.

The electoral outcome in Bihar in the upcoming general election could only improve for the BJP if the JD (U) switched sides again. The Bharat Ratna award for backward caste icon Karpoori Thakur was certainly aimed at attracting the OBC voters but clearly was not thought to be sufficient.

The BJP needed Kumar, who claims to be a disciple of Thakur. Most of his core voters, the Kurmis, are still expected to stay with him. However, the outer fringes of his support base, the less prominent Extremely Backward Classes and Most Backward Classes, also called the pachpaunia castes, have largely deserted him for the BJP. Past experience, however, has shown that Kumar can transfer his core Kurmi vote to his political allies.

However, until recently, Kumar was unwilling to rejoin the NDA.

Kumar left the BJP-led coalition on 9 August 2022 despite no threat to his position as chief minister. Although it had 78 MLAs in Bihar to Kumar's 45, the BJP was quite happy to let him occupy the top slot. Prime ministerial ambitions impelled him to jettison the BJP and join hands with the RJD, Congress and Communist Party of India. He hoped this would help position him as the Opposition's prime ministerial candidate in 2024.

Kumar played a crucial role in bringing together the INDIA bloc to raise his profile and candidature. He organised the first meeting of the opposition parties on 23 June 2023 in Patna. Subsequently, the parties met in Bengaluru (17-18 July), Mumbai (31 August-1 September), Delhi (19 December) and then virtually (13 January 2024). However, Kumar was offered the post of Convenor of the INDIA bloc only in the last meeting. He refused as he thought the offer had come too late in the day.

His leadership was thwarted by the Congress, the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party. The Congress may have been foolhardy in asserting its leadership of the pre-electoral coalition by appointing its president, Mallikarjun Kharge, as the alliance's chairman. If things went well, its post-electoral supremacy would, in any case, have been assured. Kumar, as Convenor, would have taken his chances for leadership irrespective of which party emerged largest after the polls.

Kumar's main reason for divorcing the BJP evaporated when he realised there was no room in the Opposition alliance for his national ambitions. There were other reasons as well to renew intimacy with the BJP. Nearly half his party MPs feared that they might not retain the seats they had won in alliance with the BJP in 2019. Other senior leaders were also in favour of joining hands with the BJP.

Moreover, Kumar's continuation as chief minister was uncertain after the general election, as the RJD could pressure him to quit. Apparently, there had been a tacit understanding that Kumar would move to the Centre after the general election and the chief minister's job would go to Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD. If he had not been the Opposition's prime ministerial candidate and the JD (U) had underperformed, RJD supremo Lalu Yadav would have had him for breakfast. 

Continuing the alliance with the RJD was, therefore, increasingly unviable. On the other hand, if he changed sides, chances were that Kumar could retain his position as chief minister. This is what he ensured through the political somersault on Sunday.

Charges of Kumar's switch being impelled by RJD supremo Lalu Yadav's dynastic politics are meaningless. The RJD's politics was as dynastic even in 2022 when he allied with it as it is now. Kumar is too seasoned a politico to be "provoked" by the tweets of Yadav's daughter, Rohini Acharya. She only unmasked the direction of his political intentions before he would have liked.

It is quite likely that Kumar also expects to benefit as a member of the NDA from the religious fervour built by the inauguration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya, the Centre's welfare schemes and the larger-than-life persona of the prime minister himself.

Now that Barkis was willin', the BJP embraced him again with open arms. Kumar may, however, have to pay a political cost as the BJP is likely to reduce the number of Lok Sabha seats he can contest. But there will be compensation for remaining a big fish in the small Bihar pond.