Supreme Court shows the yellow card: Rahul Gandhi back in the field

The Supreme Court's stay on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's conviction in a defamation case is a major setback for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The public perception of Rahul Gandhi's conviction from the very beginning was of a witch-hunt. The general feeling was that those in political power wanted to keep him out of the electoral race, and the Congress would be unable to mobilise if Rahul were imprisoned. It was recognised as a blatantly political move.

Now, Rahul Gandhi is not only to be reinstated in Parliament, but he can also lead the Congress party in the 2024 general election and contest from any constituency of his choice.

Understanding judicial decisions is complex. On the one hand, judicial decisions are based on rules derived and applied by disinterested legal reasoning. On the other hand, they are also likely to be influenced by the political context in which they are made. Either way, the decision is salutary. Even though it may appear to have inconvenienced the political plans of some and maybe a setback domestically for the BJP, it also benefits the government internationally.

It was not only large sections of the Indian public in India but also observers in the global community who perceived the conviction of the Congress leader as vindictive. International criticism stung, especially because the ruling dispensation is not as adept at managing it as it does Indian public opinion. It is unlikely that when Prime Minister Modi met President Joe Biden of the US or President Emmanuel Macron of France, Rahul Gandhi's possible imprisonment would not have figured in their informal talks on the sidelines. With US elections on the horizon, President Biden would be unable to sell friendship with India to his Democratic party if Gandhi were in jail. The judicial decision perhaps has come as a bail-out for all concerned.

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The Supreme Court order has made it harder for the Surat Sessions court, where Rahul Gandhi has appealed against the conviction, to uphold the maximum punishment of two years imprisonment. The apex court has been highly critical of the lower judiciary and the Gujarat High Court for awarding the maximum punishment for an offence that is non-cognisable, bailable and compoundable, saying "the least the Trial Judge was expected to do was to give some reasons as why, in the fact and circumstances, he found it necessary to impose the maximum sentence of two years." It did not spare the appellate court and the Gujarat High Court either, noting that they "have spent voluminous pages while rejecting the application for stay of conviction, these aspects have not even been touched in their orders." Surprisingly, the court also chose to take a swipe at the Gujarat High Court, saying that some of its recent judgements make for interesting reading and, "the less said about it the better."

From the very beginning of the defamation case to the Supreme Court's critical comments on the Gujarat courts, an impression is likely to form in the public mind that this was a conspiracy against Rahul Gandhi by political and legal actors who happen to come from Gujarat. Such uncharitable branding can neither be good for the BJP nor the state.

The Supreme Court judgement is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the Congress. It has raised both the national and international profile of Rahul Gandhi. He is a much taller leader today. This transformation has the potential to power the election rhetoric of the Congress and the Opposition in the coming days.

The immediate consequence of the Supreme Court judgement is that Rahul Gandhi's disqualification from Parliament stands revoked. Legal opinion suggests that his disqualification stands revoked from the day of the stay – August 3. In 2018, a bench comprising the then Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra, Justice A M Khanwilkar and Justice D Y Chandrachud ruled, "It is untenable that the disqualification which ensues from a conviction will operate despite the appellate court having granted a stay of the conviction." Therefore, the decision to restore Rahul Gandhi as an MP does not rest with the Lok Sabha Secretariat. The moment it receives the court orders, it has to notify his restoration as an MP.

However, it remains to be seen whether this will happen with the same despatch as his disqualification, which occurred within 24 hours of his conviction by the Gujarat trial court. One week of the Monsoon Session of Parliament remains. It will include the debate on the no-confidence vote against the Modi government scheduled for August 8 to 10. The Congress party, pressing for Rahul Gandhi's presence in the Lok Sabha, has indicated that it would like to field him in the debate. However, it is quite possible that the notification nullifying Gandhi's disqualification might be delayed on procedural grounds till the no-confidence motion is done and dusted. The issue is likely to become a point of friction between the Opposition and the Lok Sabha Speaker, whose neutrality will be on the test.

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As India moves closer to the next general election – now barely six months away -- ideological lines are being drawn deep. A Facebook post has responded excitedly to the development with, "Harry Potter has survived another attack by Voldemort and the Death Eaters! Take heart and move on, Dumbledore's army!" Not all Indian voters are Harry Potter fans, but clearly, the BJP will be forced to think anew about polarising the voters to consolidate its vote.

Having tasted power, the BJP cannot be expected to give up so easily. It is likely that the BJP and the Hindutva organisations that act as its cadre on the ground will become far more savage in their attacks on the Opposition. There may also be a rise in hate speech to foment low-intensity communalism. However, increased international scrutiny may make big communal conflagrations impossible. Nor should one assume that Prime Minister Modi has got the new Parliament and PM's residence constructed for Rahul Gandhi or someone else. The coming electoral battle is, therefore, likely to be hard-fought and vicious.