The growing power of geolocation crosses over into conflict zones

One of the great accomplishments of the 21st century is the ability to determine locations very accurately. A smartphone can easily geo-locate itself inside a square with 3.5 metres or less on each side, using open location codes (“plus codes”).

Plus codes simplify the representation of a given spot, using extended longitude and latitude coordinates with subdivisions of minutes and seconds. Plus codes use a Base 20 number system to convert the Lat-Long readings into shorter formats.  Geometers can also add the international height reference frame to adjust differences in sea-levels with baseline “zero-height”.

The maths is not conceptually hard. The accuracy of measurement is critical. That accuracy comes from 21st century’s satellites, which measure time and distance with remarkable accuracy. The same spot is targeted by many satellites to ensure accurate geolocation.

  Geolocation is a classic example of technology with multiple applications. Amazon, Blinkit, Swiggy, Uber, Lyft, and Google, among others, use it to locate obscure places. Emergency services like ambulances, police, fire brigade, find it useful. Civil engineers design road and sewage systems and power grids with it. Municipalities use it to check tax records. Logistics services, shippers, airlines, cut millions off costs with it.    

  Accuracy can be refined to a much greater degree by increasing the number and quality of satellites. A normal 11-digit plus code offers accuracy to within a square with sides of 3.5 metres at the equator (it’s even more accurate away from the equator). A 14-digit plus code locates a 22 cm square.  Military systems use even more accurate methods, edging down to millimetres and less.

  Once you’ve found an exact spot, getting there with the least fuss is useful. Many service providers are looking at drones and driverless cars or trucks to do the job. The average drone is far better at reading a map than the average human. The only issue is navigating traffic en route, since that traffic is largely generated by average humans.  

  While a drone can deliver pizza to somebody at a random location, it can also deliver kaboom. It’s not so difficult to rig up a drone to carry an explosive payload, which can be set to go off at a specific place. Variations on this theme involve rockets and other missiles.

  In World War II, the Germans used gyroscopic timers to trigger the original cruise missile — the V-1 flying bomb. The engineers knew approximately how long a trip from the launch site to the target would take. The gyro was set to rotate for that duration, and the bomb exploded once the gyro stopped.

  The 21st century equivalents of the V-1 have more sophisticated trigger mechanisms to go with far more efficient navigation. Whether its drones, cruise missiles, or other munitions, they are all capable of finding targets with extreme accuracy and exploding at the right instant.

  The defensive responses involve attempts to scramble the electronics of the smart “bomb” (it may be an unmanned aerial vehicle, or a missile) through electronic counter-measures (ECM) to confuse it. Also the defence tries to interdict missiles in mid-flight by hitting them with other missiles (shells, rockets, and missiles). It gets more complicated with trying to work out electronic signatures and radar profiles.

  The four-day faceoff between India and Pakistan saw both sides deploying lots of state-of-the-art stuff that depended on location. Both flew manned planes only from within their own borders, and launched missiles and drones beyond visual range at cross-border targets, while using their own air defence systems to interdict the opponents’ “slings and arrows”.  Future conflicts will also see versions of this playing out. At some stage, “air superiority” will come to mean the ability to knock out satellites.

  While the military tech is more sophisticated, the civilian tech — location plus drones — is good enough for military jugaad. Ukraine’s cottage industry produces nearly a million military-capable drones a month. The Houthis also use jury-rigged drones with open location systems to great effect. It may not be too long before terrorists across the world start using drones to carry out attacks.

  A second associated area of concern is the weaponisation of artificial intelligence (AI). Human reaction speeds are useless in a 21st century war fought this way. All air defence systems and most missiles, drones and loitering munitions are likely to be AI-driven. An arsenal of autonomous weaponry sounds cool but it could have some very nasty consequences since we’ve yet to find ways to build judgement into AI.