Census beyond numbers: Managing political fallout needs careful handling

The Union government on Wednesday announced that the next Census would be conducted in two phases. The first phase will cover hilly parts of the country, such as Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, by October 1, 2026. The second phase, which is scheduled for completion by March 1, 2027, will cover the rest of the county. The Census, originally scheduled for 2021, was initially postponed due to the pandemic, but was delayed even after normalcy returned for reasons that remain unclear. Nevertheless, the fact that the government has now given a schedule must be welcomed. The upcoming Census, being conducted after a 16-year gap, will also include detailed caste data for the first time since Independence. The last caste Census was conducted in 1931.

 

The importance of the decennial Census cannot be overemphasised in a rapidly developing country like India. Given the long gap, the data from the 2027 Census will be keenly anticipated. India has changed significantly since the last Census. For example, India’s gross domestic product in 2011 was worth about $1.8 trillion and is projected to cross $5 trillion in 2027. It has also urbanised at a rapid pace. For policy purposes, it is extremely important to have recent data. As former government statisticians have told this newspaper, various surveys that are used to track the economy and formulate policies have become less reliable because they have been drawing their sample from the 2011 Census. Even for business, part of the sales being reported and accounted as rural could be urban. Thus, the Census will help bring clarity. Besides, it is important to know the actual size of the population, which is estimated to have surpassed China’s, making India the most populous country. It is also possible that the birth rate has declined to a much lower level than what the surveys are indicating. Thus, the Census will answer several such critical questions and better inform policy.

 

Aside from the usual socioeconomic aspects, the Census 2027 will also have political implications. As noted above, it will collect caste data, which was a big political issue in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. With the Census data, the relevance of caste in politics will only increase. This issue will need to be handled with political maturity by all parties. The caste data will likely strengthen the demand to increase reservations. In addition, there could be contestation among groups to get included in the “Other Backward Classes” category. It may also lead to demands for sub-categorisation. All this can create significant friction in society and will need to be managed.

 

Further, the announcement of the Census has restarted the delimitation debate. The Constitution requires readjusting the Lok Sabha constituencies on the basis of the first Census after 2026. The implementation of 33 per cent reservation for women in legislatures is also dependent on the next delimitation exercise. It is not clear how quickly the final Census report will be available and whether there will be enough time to complete the delimitation exercise before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Even if it doesn’t happen before 2029, it can open another front for political friction. Southern states fear that their representation will diminish because of the increasing population difference between the North and South. Therefore, while the Census will help inform policy, associated political fallouts will have to be managed carefully.