Brace for more volatility amid geopolitical crisis, election outcome

It was a choppy ride for the markets last week with the Indian indices reacting sharply to geopolitical events. Commodity markets, too, were not spared. Prices of key commodities, especially crude oil, went up steeply.
 
With the Russian military intensifying assault on Ukrainian cities, the Brent crude oil shot to $121 per barrel on March 3 before easing off to $110 per barrel on talks to revive the nuclear deal with Iran. Wheat prices also spiked over 58 per cent and corn prices climbed over 20 per cent this month.
 
It’s also going to be an action-packed week where geopolitical developments will continue to impact how global financial markets perform.
Back home, all eyes will be on the outcome of the assembly election results of five key states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Mizoram and Goa – scheduled to be announced on March 10.

Given the sharp surge in Brent crude oil prices, most analysts expect the government to hike petrol and diesel prices this week.
Let’s tune in to Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financial on how he sees the markets to play out.
 
By end of the week, India will also be releasing the industrial production (YoY) and manufacturing output data (MoM).
At the global level, the US Federal Reserve will kick start this week by releasing consumer credit data for January 2022 today. Investors will keenly track whether consumer spending has boomed or bottomed out after the third wave stoked US inflation to 40-month high.
 
The European Central Bank (ECB) is slated to roll out their decision over rates and asset purchases on March 10. Also, the US will release consumer price index data (CPI) YoY for February 2022 on March 10.
 
So, how should you approach the markets then? Here are the key levels you need to keep a tab on.
 
Tech charts suggest a negative setup for Nifty 50 with index slipping below 16,000 levels with 16,150 acting as a support the benchmark index. Selling intensity is likely to increase as Sensex signals a downturn to 53,000 with a support of 53,850-53,550 levels.