Telugu Desam Party shifts focus from old turf to hometown advantage

In the political ballpark of Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party readies to hit a political home run, while the YSR Congress Party faces a rising tide of anti-incumbency. ADITI PHADNIS writes

On National Highway 16, the journey from Rajahmundry (now Rajamahendravaram) to Guntur takes no more than three and a half hours, even during heavy traffic. On October 31, it took Nara Chandrababu Naidu eleven and a half hours. He was returning home to Undavalli in Guntur district after being granted bail in the skill development scam.

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which he has led for nearly four decades, described his “release” as a victory for “innocence and truth”. However, the fact is that Naidu received bail because his lawyers argued that he needed to undergo an “urgent” cataract operation at a hospital of his choice.

The court has instructed him to surrender after the operation on November 28.

Even at 4 am on that Wednesday morning, people had lined up on both sides of the road to welcome him.

“It was a spontaneous show of support,” said a former chief secretary of the state.

The ruling party in Andhra Pradesh (AP), the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), was less impressed. General Secretary Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy stated, “The former chief minister’s (CM’s) role in the skill scam is very clear. Further details of the scam will be unearthed after questioning P Srinivasa Rao, a key aide to Naidu. How can truth prevail when all the former CM has been granted is interim bail? Right from the beginning of his political career, Naidu manipulated institutions for his benefit...”

Even while he was in prison, Naidu informed a group of visiting party leaders of a decision that took their breath away. Naidu announced that the TDP would not participate in the upcoming Assembly elections in Telangana. The party leadership in the state reacted with anger and disbelief.

Announcing his resignation from the TDP, state President Kasani Gnaneshwar Mudiraj told reporters, “I am deeply pained by the party’s decision. This does not bode well for any political party. The TDP in Telangana is very strong in some seats, and there is a lot of sympathy after TDP chief Naidu was jailed. I waited in the party office for a positive reply on contesting the polls. However, I do not know the exact reasons behind Naidu’s decision.”

These reasons are not hard to divine.

The turnout in AP to greet him upon his return from prison tells at least part of the story. The numbers tell the other half.

In the last Telangana Assembly election (2018), the TDP contested as part of a grand coalition with the Congress and Left parties. On its own, the TDP received only 3.5 per cent of the vote share. It contested 13 seats but managed to win only two.

“The balance of advantage (in contesting the poll in Telangana) is not in our favour,” said a senior TDP leader.

Instead of expending its energies in a battle that is likely to yield suboptimal results, the TDP has decided to opt out of the Assembly election in the state where it once ruled, choosing to focus on the state where it was born: AP.

Bureaucrats assert that there is much amiss with the way AP is being governed and suggest high levels of anti-incumbency with the Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy-led government.

Union Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary informed the Lok Sabha in July that AP’s total external debt stood at Rs 11,817.17 crore as of July 26, 2023. This debt includes funds borrowed from multilateral agencies such as Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and New Development Bank.

While some of the borrowing will finance health, education, and infrastructure, it is still money that must be repaid.

AP Minister Buggana Rajendranath Reddy has downplayed the concern, stating, “Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, welfare schemes in the state have not been halted.”

However, state bureaucrats argue that a state debt of Rs 12,000 crore should be a matter of concern, as emphasised by former AP chief secretary L V Subrahmanyam.

The unique selling proposition of the Jagan Mohan Reddy government has been direct benefit transfer and welfare spending for low-income groups.

Nevertheless, not everyone is satisfied.

“Government employees, teachers, doctors, and the urban salaried middle class have received very little from the government. Other areas, such as infrastructure and communications, have not improved. These groups are deeply discontented,” noted a Congress supporter who operates a think tank. “When you add to these caste groups, which are numerically small but influential, like the Brahmins and Vaishyas, you come up with even more discontentment.”

On the other end of the spectrum, the TDP’s primary support base is among the Kamma, a wealthy landowning caste that took advantage of the technology revolution led by the unified AP under Chandrababu Naidu and is now possibly the largest caste group within the Indian diaspora abroad.

In the rise of the TDP in the 1980s, the Kamma caste saw an opportunity to challenge the Congress-led Reddy-Brahmin hegemony and assert itself as a political force. While social scientists are uncertain about the extent of the Kamma community’s unity in supporting Naidu, they agree that his arrest has consolidated their support.

Assembly elections in AP for the 175-member legislative Assembly are scheduled in six months.

A Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies survey that analysed the 2019 Assembly election reported that the YSRCP, with 151 seats and 49.9 per cent of the vote, was unquestionably in control of an electoral wave. However, the TDP managed to secure a respectable 39 per cent vote share, even though it only won 23 seats.

With the Bharatiya Janata Party still playing a minor role in the state (in 2019, it received just 0.84 per cent of the vote share and no seats) and the Congress remaining discredited for its role in the state’s division, the battle is between the YSRCP and the TDP. This time, the TDP is determined to make a comeback.