Inflation

Periods of major wars - both global and regional - have frequently aligned with spikes in India's inflation

Inflation targeting plus floating exchange rate plus open capital account

Persistently high oil prices could push up retail inflation faster than expected and slow India's economic growth in the first half of FY27, Fitch Ratings said in its latest outlook

CPI inflation increased by 47 basis points year-on-year in February, data showed

The gas crunch is rippling through the economy, raising fears about a spike in prices and a drop in output in some sectors

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in a written statement, said that the medium-term impact of global crude oil price rise on inflation would depend upon several factors

The unusually sharp repricing came as major oil producers cut supply and fears grew of prolonged shipping disruptions, pushing crude above $119 a barrel its highest level since mid-2022

Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, hit 1.8 per cent - the highest since 2019

India could face pressure on the rupee, higher inflation and a widening current account deficit if the escalating Middle East conflict spikes energy prices and disrupts supplies, given its heavy dependence on crude and LNG imports from the region, according to Moody's Ratings. "India stands out among the large Asian economies that rely on crude and LNG from the Middle East," the rating agency said. The country imports about 46 per cent of its oil and natural gas requirements from the Middle East. Supplies from the region have been disrupted as the widening West Asia conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for crude oil and LNG exports from the region. "Costly energy imports would weaken the rupee, raise inflation, worsen the current account balance and complicate monetary policy as well as fiscal management if they lead to expanded subsidies to help offset the economic shock," Moody's said in a note on oil supply shock in prolonged West Asia conflict. Strait of Hor

Under its baseline forecast, Goldman expects oil prices to increase a bit further before moderating to $76 per barrel on average in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 in the fourth quarter

RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta says retail inflation should remain benign, while India's underlying growth trend has steadily accelerated over four decades amid resilient macro fundamentals

FY27 Q1-Q2 inflation forecast may be raised 20-30 bps, says MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya

RBI MPC members signalled support for growth as minutes from the February meeting showed confidence in a benign inflation outlook, with most seeing room to sustain an accommodative policy bias

RBI's monthly report says India's near-term outlook remains strong, supported by benign inflation, fiscal consolidation and renewed FPI interest after trade deals with the EU and the US

Wholesale inflation rose to a 10-month high of 1.81% in January, driven by higher food and core prices, with vegetable inflation turning positive and manufactured goods showing renewed price pressures

As Manipur returns to elected rule under Yumnam Khemchand Singh, data on inflation, fiscal stress and unemployment show a fragile and uneven recovery

Revised 2024 base year, fresh consumption weights and expanded market basket recast state inflation rankings; Telangana tops January list under new series

From 2019 to 2024, Bangladesh beat India in terms of per capita income

Last week, Nomura had assigned a 65 per cent probability that ‌the Reserve Bank of India would cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent

Next step may be a rate increase as and when the inflation rate grows