Morgan Stanley's Sensex Estimate

India is ending 2025 with its worst relative performance versus the emerging markets (EM) since 1994, Morgan Stanley said. Relative valuations, they believe, have corrected meaningfully

The Indian stock market, Morgan Stanley believes, is transitioning into one that will be driven by macros and stock-picking will likely lose importance

As an investment strategy, Morgan Stanley remains overweight on financials, consumer cyclicals, and industrials; and are underweight on energy, materials, utilities and healthcare.

The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable, and see the Sensex at 93,000 levels by December 2025 - up 25 per cent from the current levels as their base case.

Morgan Stanley's outlook assumes that India will maintain macroeconomic stability, aiding investor confidence

The upcoming general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes

The defining moment, Desai said, could be if and when the 26-party opposition alliance, known as I.N.D.I.A., is able to strike a seat-sharing deal

The brokerage firm added that it expects Sensex to reach 68,500 by the end of December this year

For foreign investors, there is a good opportunity to buy Japan, Korea and Taiwan in the Asian region, he said in this exclusive interview on the sidelines of the Morgan Stanley India Investment Forum

Earlier in November 2022, Morgan Stanley had reiterated its stance on the Indian markets and said that the bull-run remained intact. Back then, they expected the Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by Dec '23

In a bull-case scenario (30 per cent probability), Morgan Stanley expects the Sensex to hit 75,000 by December 2022-end and sees the 30-share index at 45,000 by the year-end in a bear case scenario

Policy makers in Asia, according to Morgan Stanley, will be able to normalise policy gradually, contingent on the pace of recovery, inflation dynamics, and the implications of the Omicron variant

In a bull-case scenario (30 per cent probability), Morgan Stanley sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels - an upside of around 22 per cent from the current levels

We believe the overall approach of the fiscal policy is in line with the message from the Economic Survey, said Morgan Stanley in a post Budget note

If investors start expecting that the electorate will deliver a fragmented verdict with weak leadership, the index, will likely head towards their bear case scenario of 33,000 levels

Global financial services entity Morgan Stanley has raised its 'Bull case' year-end target for the BSE exchange's benchmark Sensex to 39,000, from the earlier 33,000. This has come in the wake of the Indian markets scaling new heights. The brokerage says revival in corporate earnings and appetite for equities among domestic investors are expected to be key drivers for the rally. The Sensex closed at 30,188 on Friday.Which means in its best/Bull case scenario, the probability for which is pegged at 30 per cent, Morgan Stanley sees a 29 per cent upside to the market by end-December or over the next seven months."This could be the beginning of a new growth cycle. Earnings could compound at 20 per cent (annually) over the coming five years. Rising demand for equities from domestic households and potential M&A (merger and acquisition) activity would also push the markets in the coming months," said Ridham Desai, managing director, Morgan Stanley India.The Base case, where the ...