Trump could impose copper import tariffs within weeks, not months

By Joe Deaux, Josh Wingrove, James Attwood and Jennifer A. Dlouhy  US tariffs on copper imports could be coming within several weeks, months earlier than the deadline for a decision, according to people familiar with the matter. Copper traded in New York rose to a record. 

US President Donald Trump in February directed the Commerce Department to open an investigation into potential copper tariffs and submit a report within 270 days, though it’s now expected to be resolved sooner, said the people who asked not to be identified because the discussions are confidential.  

The investigation already is looking like little more than a formality, some of the people said, with Trump having regularly said he plans to impose the tariffs. 

The administration is proceeding expeditiously with the review, and a conclusion could be possible well before the 270-day deadline, an official familiar with the process said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 

The White House declined to comment. In February, Peter Navarro, a White House trade adviser, said the investigation would proceed quickly. 

“You will see our new secretary of commerce, Howard Lutnick, will move in what I like to call Trump time, which is quickly as possible to get results of the investigation on the president’s desk for possible action,” Navarro said. 

Trump has threatened to impose a duty of as much as a 25 per cent on all copper imports, a move that could roil the global market for one of the world’s most ubiquitous metals, which is used in pipes and electrical cables. 

Implementing copper tariffs with such haste would stand in stark contrast to the investigations that preceded steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by Trump during his first administration. They took some 10 months to complete.  

The planned levies are part of a broader effort to boost domestic production of critical minerals, following on from emergency measures introduced last week to fast-track the development of new metals and mining projects. Even so, building new copper production capacity could take years, and in the meantime the tariffs will leave US manufacturers paying much more for metal than rivals overseas. 

Copper on New York’s Comex rose as much as 3.1 per cent to a record of $5.3740 a pound, before paring those gains to trade at $5.2815. The benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 2.2 per cent to $9,893 a ton, widening the gap between the two contracts to more than $1,700 a ton. 

The large price differential between London and New York created a worldwide dash among traders and dealers to ship the red metal to America to capture a lucrative premium. Such a move has left the rest of the world, especially top consumer China, short of copper. 

The drop in London copper prices reflects lower expectation of tightness given traders may not have enough time to ship out more metal to the US before tariffs land, said Li Yaoyao, an analyst with Xinfu Futures Co. 

“It’s really about, in how many weeks the tariffs will land,” Li said. 

The president, in his March 5 address to a joint session of Congress, stirred uncertainty when he sought to defend his tariffs. Trump said he had imposed a 25 per cent tariff on foreign aluminum, steel, lumber and copper — a possible slip of the tongue given he only set in motion a formal copper investigation weeks prior. 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. had expected a 25 per cent copper tariff to be implemented between September and November, analysts said in an emailed note on Wednesday. With tariffs now likely to come sooner, the gap between Comex and LME prices — which is currently around 17 per cent — is likely to widen further, they said. 

“Factoring in uncertainty on the tariff level and high US inventories, we think an implied tariff of 20 per cent should be the cap in the near-term.” analysts including Eoin Dinsmore wrote. “This has also been a level regularly cited as a good exit point in numerous client meetings.”