US jobless claims dip to 237,000 as labour market stays resilient

By Hannah Pedone

US applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting companies are holding onto workers despite a moderation in job gains.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 12,000 to 237,000 in the week ending July 8, according to a labour Department report published Thursday. The print was below all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Continuing claims, which include those who have received benefits for longer than one week, rose to 1.73 million in the week through July 1, marking the first increase in four weeks.

Applications for unemployment benefits have remained largely steady at historically low levels over the last few months, even as other labour-market indicators have suggested an emerging slowdown. US employers added 209,000 workers to payrolls last month, the least since the end of 2020.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:
 

“Based on our analysis of WARN effective layoff notices, we were not surprised to see jobless claims decline for the week ended July 8. Our collection of state notices to date suggests claims will surge again in early September, when seasonal workers are laid off after the summer.”

— Eliza Winger and Zachary Agenbroad, economists

The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which can help smooth volatility, fell to 246,750. Volatility can be expected around mid-July during the annual auto-retooling period, which may cause choppier weekly claims data. 

On an unadjusted basis, claims rose to 258,614 in the week ending July 8, with New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania contributing most to the increase. New Jersey, Connecticut and Michigan saw the biggest declines.