Reliance Retail and Jio likely to trigger Ebitda turnaround for RIL

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), the conglomerate led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is poised for a strong rebound in earnings, with Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) projected to climb 16 per cent in FY26, up from a modest 2 per cent rise in FY25, according to analysts at global brokerages Goldman Sachs and Bernstein.

 

Goldman expects Reliance’s CROCI (cash return on capital invested) to widen by 140 basis points to 11 per cent by FY27, citing minimal downside risks to consensus earnings forecasts. Supporting the outlook are steady refining margins, a revitalised retail segment with 15 per cent revenue growth as store and B2C restructuring wrap up, and a potential telecom tariff hike in the latter half of FY26. Reliance holds a 66.5 per cent stake in Reliance Jio and an 83 per cent stake in Reliance Retail, with the balance held by global private equity firms, sovereign funds, and technology companies.

  Shares of Reliance ended flat on Tuesday at ₹1,406 apiece on the BSE. 

 

The Wall Street firm also pointed to the rollout of new energy capacities -- beginning in calendar year 2026 -- including 10 Gw of integrated solar and 30 GWh of battery pack and cell assembly, as key to bolstering the group’s longer-term earnings trajectory.

 

For Jio Infocomm, Goldman forecasts a 23 per cent jump in FY26 Ebitda, underpinned by a 14 per cent year-on-year rise in average revenue per user to ₹236 by March 2026. The telecom arm is also poised to benefit from a pickup in fixed wireless access (FWA) subscriber growth, the report noted. 

 

Jio’s non-connectivity businesses are gaining traction, with annualised revenues reaching $1.9 billion at the end of FY25 -- up 36 per cent from a year earlier -- and generating roughly $550 million in Ebitda, or 7 per cent of Jio Platforms’ total. Goldman pegs Jio Platforms’ free cash flow at $2.5 billion in FY26 and $4.8 billion in FY27, with rising tariffs and a tapering capex cycle driving CROCI to 14 per cent by FY27.

 

Bernstein echoed the optimism, citing broad-based momentum across Reliance’s business verticals. The brokerage emphasised the group’s capital discipline, noting flat net debt-to-Ebitda in FY25, and a pullback in overall capital spending. In retail, Reliance shuttered 2,100 underperforming stores during FY25 as part of a rationalisation strategy.

 

On the telecom front, Bernstein expects Jio to remain a key engine of growth, with Arpu gains translating into stronger earnings as capex continues to ease. “We project a 13 per cent revenue CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for Jio over the next two years and expect the ramp-up of Jio AirFiber to accelerate broadband penetration. Market share gains are likely to persist, with Jio on course to reach 500 million subscribers and a 48 per cent revenue share by FY27,” the firm wrote.