Datanomics: India's trade surplus with US declines after tariffs

India's trade surplus with the US fell 28% to $31.2 billion in 2025-26 as tariffs hit exports of key goods and imports increased

US President Donald Trump levied 25 per cent tariff on India in July last year. Further, the tariff rate rose to 50 per cent in August to limit India's trade with Russia. Following the 25 per cent tariff levy, India's trade surplus with the US declined from $43.19 billion in 2024-25 (July-June) to $31.2 billion in 2025-26 (July-June) — a drop of 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). The trade surplus narrowed because of higher imports of petroleum, aluminium and copper products, gold, silver, precious stones, and electronic goods. Simultaneously, India's outward shipments to the US fell during this period, with the largest declines seen in exports of gems and jewellery, drugs and pharmaceuticals, agricultural goods, and readymade garments. The US earned record-breaking revenue via Customs from April 2025 through March 2026. However, after the US started issuing refunds in the latter half of April following the ruling by the US Supreme Court to declare the tariff programme unlawful, net Customs revenue (after deducting the refunds) shrank that month and turned negative starting May 2026.