India's Superman stature in world order by 2075 to be US' kryptonite

The US’ long-standing economic ‘exceptionalism’ will fade as the 21st century wears on. Goldman Sachs has predicted the Indian economy and market to be among the top five globally by 2050 — and even outshine the US by 2075. In a report titled The Path to 2075: Capital Market Size and Opportunity, the bank said that growth in the emerging market (EM) will continue to outpace that of the developed market (DM), with seven of the top 10 world economies by 2075 being EMs.

“We expect EM growth to continue to outstrip DM over the remainder of this decade (3.8 per cent versus 1.8 per cent). In 2050, we project that the world’s five largest economies will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany. By 2075, China, the US, and India are likely to remain the three largest economies, and with the right policies and institutions, seven of the world’s top 10 economies are projected to be EMs,” says Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research, Goldman Sachs.

Off the back of superior economic growth, EMs and the Indian capital market are expected to grow in stature over the decades to come.

“Our projections imply that EMs’ share of global equity market capitalisation (m-cap) will rise from about 27 per cent currently to 35 per cent in 2030, 47 per cent in 2050, and 55 per cent in 2075. We expect India to record the largest increase in global m-cap share — from a little under 3 per cent in 2022 to 8 per cent in 2050 and 12 per cent in 2075 — reflecting a favourable demographic outlook and rapid gross domestic product per capita growth,” observes Hatzius.