Sensex growth of 10-11% in sight despite global and tariff risks: U R Bhat

Strong domestic growth and infrastructure spending could help the Sensex deliver 10-11% annual returns, barring major geopolitical shocks, says Alphaniti's U R Bhat

Strong domestic growth, deeper formalisation and digitisation, and sustained infrastructure spending should continue to support markets, says U R Bhat, cofounder and director of Alphaniti Fintech. In a telephonic interview with Sundar Sethuraman, Bhat says that barring major geopolitical shocks, the Sensex could deliver low double-digit returns — around 10–11 per cent annually — despite current tariff pressures. He also reflects on how India’s markets have evolved over the past four decades. Edited excerpts: 

What is your outlook for the market in 2026? What are the headwinds and tailwinds? 

The key headwind is the 50 per cent US tariff on