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Aluminium seen as an outlier among metals; Hindalco better placed

The suspension of bauxite exports by Guinea in Oct'24 has tightened the alumina market

The shares of aluminium manufacturers rallied on Monday on the back of a sharp rise in the price of the lightweight metal over the weekend, following China’s announcement that it will withdraw export tax rebate for the commodity.
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Devangshu Datta

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Most industrial metals are expected to stay bearish at least in early 2025. However, aluminium could be an exception. Aluminium prices have run higher to $2,600 per tonne levels due to a tight supply-demand equation.
 
The metal could go into a supply deficit in 2025 due to a combination of production cuts by Russia, civil unrest in Mozambique affecting a smelter, Guinea’s bauxite export ban, and China’s withdrawal of 13 per cent tax rebate to aluminium exporters. Demand may also slow down in Europe and in China’s property sector, but despite that Beijing’s aluminium demand is expected to grow about