The Nifty 50 index, which has declined 14.3 per cent from its peak, may be nearing the bottom of its current correction phase. Data compiled by Motilal Oswal Financial Services suggests that the current downturn aligns with the median 17 per cent drop observed during past corrections of more than 10 per cent in the Nifty 50. This also mirrors the maximum peak-to-trough decline seen in non-black swan events over the last decade. The brokerage further noted that during previous correction phases, the Nifty 50’s peak valuations at the start of the downturn were significantly higher on multiple occasions.
This provides some valuation comfort for largecap stocks, even as small and midcap stocks continue to trade well above their 10-year average valuations.
“Several factors indicate that Indian equities could be in the final stages of their correction, barring any extreme unforeseen risks. While earnings growth in FY25 has been modest so far, it is expected to accelerate to double-digit levels in FY26. Market valuations have also moderated, particularly in the large-cap segment,” Motilal Oswal stated in a note to investors.