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A Goldilocks 2026: Can reforms sustain the growth-benign inflation mix?

India may see a goldilocks 2026 with strong growth and low inflation, but sustaining this balance will hinge on reforms, RBI policy support, fiscal consolidation and easing external pressures

(ILLUSTRATION: AJAYA KUMAR MOHANT)
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(ILLUSTRATION: AJAYA KUMAR MOHANT)

Sonal Varma

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The year 2025 has been a challenging one for India. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was above expectations and the inflation rate was below the target. But beneath the surface, there was more turbulence. At 50 per cent, India was singled out for American tariffs, domestic consumption softened, slowing nominal GDP growth weighed on revenues, large outflows in foreign-portfolio equity and a delay in the United States (US) trade deal have sustained the currency weakness, and the AI (artificial intelligence) exuberance has bypassed India. All considered, the economy has navigated this turbulence well, due to prudent macro
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