CPI tracks retail price changes across India; January 2026 inflation data shifts to a new 2024 base year reflecting updated spending patterns
India's retail inflation gauge has evolved from fragmented worker-specific indices to a unified CPI framework that now anchors monetary policy and welfare decisions
The move comes in the backdrop of RBI raising its immediate GDP growth and inflation forecasts
The old-weight estimates place January CPI inflation at 2.5 per cent- 2.6 per cent, while the new-weight estimates span 2.45 per cent to 3.2 per cent
MoSPI's revised CPI modernises price collection, updates weights and aligns with global standards, reshaping how inflation trends are measured and interpreted
Traders will look for cues from US GDP, PMI, non-farm payroll and inflation data. Also, inflation readings from China, Germany, and India will also be keenly watched
Inflation risks may prove to be broader than what that explanation implies
Some economists said that a pause is warranted at this juncture to assess the upcoming CPI and GDP data, which will be released in mid to late February 2026 using new base years
India's new CPI series, with lower food weight and higher core components, may nudge headline inflation higher but is expected to improve policy predictability and ease RBI's targeting
As RBI reviews its inflation-targeting framework ahead of 2026, former MPC members back the 4% CPI target, saying the model has anchored expectations despite global shocks
Challenge lies in identifying new sources of growth to sustain an accelerated trajectory, says Poonam Gupta
India's inflation rate will likely be higher in FY27 than in FY26
India will sharply reduce the food and beverages weight in the CPI basket as part of a 2024 base-year revamp, aiming to better capture evolving consumption patterns
As the US slaps fresh tariffs on Iran's trading partners, India faces little fallout - but the move underscores Tehran's deepening economic stress under decades of sanctions
CPI-food inflation peaked at 16.12 per cent in April 2018, while the lowest reading was recorded in April 2019
Trading activity of foreign investors would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted
Core inflation, excluding food and fuel components, likely edged up to 4.53 per cent in December from an estimated 4.2 per cent-4.3 per cent in Nov, partly due to a 7 per cent rally in gold prices
External demand is expected to fare better in FY27 than in FY26, aided by recently concluded trade agreements with the UK, New Zealand and Oman, and the prospect of a US trade deal later in the fiscal
After nearly 18 months of lukewarm performance, the FMCG sector registered a volume growth of 5.3 per cent in the August-October period of 2025
The Reserve Bank of India currently aims to keep inflation anchored around 4%, the mid-point of a 2%-6% range mandated by the government