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Blow hot or blow cold? Trusted indicators give conflicting signals

How could we find our way out of this gloom to a happier scenario?

world economy
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Illustration: Ajaya Mohanty

Ajay Shah

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In 2016, Scott R Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J Davis developed a measure of economic policy uncertainty (“EPU”) based on an analysis of words in the media. These measures have found many successful applications in research literature. In periods where media freedom is stable, changes in these measures seem to meaningfully pick up changes in policy uncertainty. 
The graph superposes their measure for the world and for India. In both cases, the Covid peak is a good reference point. In the global measure, we see a sharp increase in policy uncertainty in recent months. The latest value is above
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