GDP growth data suggests a robust recovery

Economy-wide modelling while facing multiple exogenous shocks is clearly a task that is challenging and risky

The First Advance Estimates (FAE) for India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for FY24 surprises all. The Indian economy is projected to grow at 7.3 per cent, compared with 7.2 per cent in FY23. While this is much higher than the estimates made by most — maybe all — professional forecasters, what is pleasantly surprising is that this is higher than even the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) 7 per cent projection, which was seen as overly optimistic.  All professional forecasters might have to relook at their models and assumptions. This data also suggests that an economy-wide modelling while facing