Makkah Pact and the shifting equations in West Asia

The Gulf is also India's western security flank, and changing regional alignments make any response to cross-border terror attacks more challenging

Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan concluded a Joint Defence Agreement in Makkah, the holy Islamic city in Saudi Arabia, on August 7. The text of the agreement has not been made public, so the analysis is based on the joint statement issued after it was signed. The agreement stipulates that an armed attack on any one member country will be regarded as an attack on all three. It also commits the three countries to building joint defence, improving regional security and supporting collective deterrence. 

Much of the commentary from the three countries stresses that the pact brings together the military industrial capability of Turkiye, the financial muscle of Saudi Arabia and the nuclear capability of Pakistan in a potent deterrence role. All three countries have declared that the agreement is not directed against any specific country but that it is meant to provide collective deterrence. It is not clear how they would react if deterrence fails for any partner. 

While it has been announced that the headquarters of Makkah Pact will be located at Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, there is no evidence so far of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato)-type joint operational command with a clear war doctrine. Each country may define its main security threat differently. For Pakistan it is India; for Saudi Arabia, it is Iran and now Israel. For Turkiye, it may be Israel and Israel’s efforts to dominate Syria and southern Lebanon. These differing security perceptions make any idea of collective defence problematical. But there is no doubt that the pact represents a significant reordering of security equations in West Asia in the wake of the continuing Iran war and the expanding Israeli military aggression in the region going beyond the war in Gaza. The overarching reality is diminishing United States (US) military capability and the failure to uphold its longstanding security guarantees to its Gulf allies. 

It is also reported that Egypt may join the agreement, which will give it added heft.  

Turkiye and Pakistan are like two bookends between which Saudi Arabia occupies a strategically critical space, with the Red Sea on one side and the Strait of Hormuz  on the other. Its economic prosperity as an oil rich kingdom is dependent upon its safe access to these maritime spaces. The Makkah agreement was preceded by a 14-nation maritime coalition, initiated by Saudi Arabia on July 30 to protect commercial shipping, secure energy supply lines and maintain open trade routes in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al Mandeb Strait. The Strait of Hormuz  was not included. Turkiye and Pakistan are members of the coalition. As far as one is aware, India was not invited to participate.  

More importantly, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan made public a bilateral Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement on September 17, 2025, which also has a clause committing the two countries to treat an attack on one party as an attack against both, the same as in the subsequent trilateral Makkah agreement. The announcement of the bilateral agreement followed the Israeli aerial attack on Qatar, where some Hamas cadres were visiting for the mediation efforts being made by Qatar for a Gaza peace. This came as a rude shock to the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia. Here again the text of the agreement has not been made public but the train of events suggests that the threat of Israeli aggression is as much a driver for these recent agreements as is the Iranian threat. 

The US has welcomed the Makkah Pact as a positive example of burden sharing and its allies and partners taking on more responsibility for their own defence. The US will remain an indispensable defence partner for these countries even with its reduced military profile. Turkiye is a Nato ally, Pakistan is a non-Nato ally, and the US has a bilateral security alliance with Saudi Arabia. However, if Israel is a target for these partners, the US may have a different view. 

In its official reaction, Iran has avoided criticising the Makkah Pact but has stressed the importance of Islamic countries collaborating for regional security and not be dependent upon outside powers. This is a shrewd move on the part of Iran, which would welcome a reduced US presence in the Gulf. 

Three developments stand behind the Makkah Pact.  

One is the diminishing credibility of US security guarantees to its allies in the Gulf and its inability to prevail over Iran.   

Two, the traditional rivalry and even antipathy between Saudi Arabia and Turkiye has given way to a military alliance between them and this is the more important political shift in the region. 

Three, as a country having longstanding military relationships bilaterally with both Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has played a significant role of a trusted bridge between them. The pact enhances Pakistan’s geopolitical profile and its role in the region. Importantly, this has the blessings of the US.  

China has not been visible in this reordering of geopolitical equations despite its substantial economic, energy, and security interests in the region. Pakistan’s rising profile and influence in the region can be leveraged by China through its dense security partnership with Pakistan. When a new security architecture begins to emerge in the region, which will necessitate Iran’s participation, China could well take up a facilitating role as it did in the past by brokering an understanding between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is inevitable that China will seek to fill the empty spaces left by the US. 

India has every reason to be keenly interested in the developments unfolding on its western flank. The security and welfare of nine million Indians who live and work in the Gulf are of paramount concern. India’s energy security is closely tied to the region since a large part of its oil and gas supplies come from there.  

The Gulf is also India’s western security flank. Recent developments may push India to the margins. The rising influence and military profile of Pakistan in the region cannot but be a matter of concern. At the very least, any military response to a cross-border terror attack from Pakistan will have to take into account the new alignments beginning to take shape in the region. The answer to these challenges lies in not making our relations with countries in the Gulf and Turkiye conditioned by their relations with Pakistan. That hands the initiative to Pakistan.

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The writer is a former foreign secretary