The last quarter-century has turned out to be less Brics, more China-India

China and India have proved the Brics forecast right in the quarter-century gone by. In the second quarter-century expect broadly more of the same, with India gaining prominence, writes T N Ninan

Continuing with last weekend’s quarter-century theme, it is instructive to look back at the long-term forecast that captured the world’s imagination early in the new century. Famously (some would say infamously), Goldman Sachs forecast that four emerging “Brics” economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) would grow to eventually match and then overtake what at the time were the world’s six biggest economies, namely the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, and Italy (the G6). That forecast has proved right on the broad direction of change, but little else.

At the macro level, Goldman had said that the Brics economies would