After the verdict

Mr Trump's conviction deepens US political friction

Former United States (US) President Donald Trump’s conviction on all 34 state felony crimes by a New York jury on May 30 is likely to magnify the fault lines in a deeply polarised political landscape. Indicators of disruptive forces emerged within hours of the verdict, which saw Mr Trump make history as the first former US President to be convicted for felony. With his base viewing the admittedly stunning verdict as evidence of a rigged system, his campaign said it had raised $52.8 million within 24 hours of the verdict — a figure still to be verified by the Federal Election Commission — and several influential supporters flew the national flag upside down as a symbol of protest. Supporters have threatened demonstrations in key cities later this month, raising the spectre of January 6, 2021. Eight Republican senators said they would vote against any spending Bills, judicial nominees, or other Democratic legislation brought to the floor by way of protest (a symbolic move since the Democrats have a majority in the chamber). However, Mr Trump can continue to run for office because there are no rules blocking candidates with criminal records.
 

No less remarkable is the fact that Joe Biden has not benefited from a bump in the polls following his rival’s guilty verdict. Trailing before the verdict, one of the earliest polls conducted after it by brand intelligence platform Morning Consult found the race almost tied nationally with Mr Biden at 45 per cent and Mr Trump at 44 per cent. A later poll by Reuters puts the percentages at 41 for Mr Biden and 39 for Mr Trump. This, although 54 per cent of the registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” approved of the verdict and that 15 per cent of the Republican voters and 49 per cent of independents said Mr Trump should end his campaign (on his part, Mr Trump plans to appeal the verdict). Much will depend on July 11, just four days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (July 15-18). Most polls show the majority of the registered voters saying he should not be jailed for this crime. It is possible that the fine margins between the contestants may change in the coming days. The elections are five months away and three presidential debates are due between September 16 and October 9, which could clarify matters. At the very least, it will offer Mr Biden, for whom doubts about his capacity to function (he will be 82 this November) and unpopularity over inflation have been compounded by his controversial management of the Israel-Hamas war, an opportunity to underline his relatively youthful opponent (at 78 years this June) status as a convicted felon.

It speaks volumes for the quality of the political discourse that the post of the most powerful leader of the free world could be reclaimed by a reality TV star and dodgy real estate mogul who was convicted in a tawdry case involving covering up hush-money payments to a porn star. It is disturbing that a man found liable for sexual abuse and defamation last year remains at the forefront of the presidential race. Most principled politicians would step aside. Should Mr Trump win, three consequential cases against him — for keeping classified documents, federal election interference, and election interference in Georgia — are likely to stall. Such a bizarre outcome would be deeply damaging for global democracy, which is already in retreat worldwide.