Demographic dilemma: How inter-state migration can provide a solution

The chief ministers of two southern Indian states, N Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh and M K Stalin of Tamil Nadu, have urged people in their states to have more children. Mr Naidu, pointing to the troubles being faced owing to aging populations in Japan, China, and Europe, has pushed his Cabinet into doing away with the two-child cap for candidates to local bodies. Shortly thereafter, Mr Stalin went one jump ahead of his counterpart by suggesting that residents of his state have 16 children. Other chief ministers may well follow suit. On the whole, it is not surprising that political trends are following the reality on the ground. As Mr Naidu pointed out, the average fertility rate in southern states has already gone down to 1.6, and may well decline further. This would indeed take large swathes of India into the demographic trap that countries like Russia and South Korea are facing.

 

However, it should be noted that there have been few policy successes across the world to draw upon. Mr Naidu has indicated that pro-natalist policies will be introduced for consideration. Although several countries globally have made such efforts, effects on fertility rates have not been large or sustained. Many of these trends are driven by measures that empower women, including education and later marriage. It would be impossible to reverse these drivers without introducing socially regressive policies. It is necessary therefore to understand exactly what is driving the concerns expressed by the two chief ministers, and whether there are alternatives they can consider.

 

One major concern is political. This has been explicitly laid out: A new delimitation of parliamentary constituencies is overdue, and it might be done on the basis of more recent population numbers. So far, the political balance in India has been based on the 1971 Census, when the north of India and the rest of it were more evenly balanced. But since then, northern states have been slower to enter the demographic transition that the rest of the country has embraced. Redrawing the political map  in a way that permanently disadvantages states that have performed better is naturally a controversial issue. It is also worth pointing out that the country as a whole is reaching a replacement rate in its total fertility of 2.1. But this conceals considerable regional variation, which is what the southern states are worried about. Their concerns will be shared, no doubt, by politicians in areas like West Bengal, Kashmir, or Punjab, all of which have a fertility rate lower than that of Andhra Pradesh.

 

But even at aggregate level, this decline is coming at an inopportune moment. The possibility of India growing old before it becomes rich cannot be ruled out. South Korea may have very low fertility rates now, but it used the few generations when it had an outsize population to grow and develop quickly. India is, however, faced with the possibility that it may miss that chance. There is only one solution that has been devised to counteract demographic pressures, and that solution underlies the likely continuing dominance of the United States in the 21st century. The US will avoid declines and may even increase its population over the century, according to most projections, because it continues to be open to migration. The question is whether South Indian leaders will accept a solution based around increasing in-migration from the north.