Destabilising the world: US strikes on Iran pose global security threats

Not only has the US demonstrated it intends to behave without restrictions or consultations, but its actions may also serve as the final nail in the non-proliferation coffin

Over the weekend, B-2 stealth bombers from the United States (US) Air Force attacked three sites within the Islamic Republic of Iran — all associated with that country’s nuclear weapons programme. These installations — in the towns of Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan — are known to be buried deep underground and thus are not accessible by most munitions. When Israel launched strikes against Iranian targets last week, it was assumed that the buried nuclear sites would survive unscathed. Only the US’ “bunker-buster” bombs — officially the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators — might have a chance of penetrating the (at least) 60-metre depth at which these facilities were designed. There was considerable speculation as to whether US President Donald Trump would follow up on the persistent requests from Israel to do what their air strikes could not. While he had promised on the campaign trail to not involve the US in any new wars, he had also spoken positively about the outcome of bombing Iran. And he has long stated that the US has been too soft on Iran, particularly in the context of the nuclear restrictions agreement negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama. 

 

It is unclear, however, whether these strikes will have actually achieved the desired outcome — setting back Iran’s nuclear programme by a decade. The small quantity of enriched uranium that was being targeted, alongside the capability to make more, might already have been long gone and stored in new and untargeted areas. In any case, even if controlling Iranian capabilities was a priority, such a strike can hardly be considered urgent. Creating the elements of a warhead is one thing; miniaturising it in such a way that it can be delivered by a missile is quite another. Israel has been arguing in public and private for too long that Iran is within a few months of concluding its programme, but there is no independent verification of Israel’s claim. And the US is once again behaving like an untrammelled superpower, launching attacks with its overwhelming strength on countries that have not been demonstrated to be violating international law. The perpetuation of conflict with Iran serves no purpose other than keeping the current dispensation in Israel —implicated in attacks on Palestinian civilians that have shocked the world — in power. Neither global security nor US national interests are served in any way by this action. 

 

Indeed, this is a major setback for global security. It is not only a fact that the US has demonstrated that it intends to behave without any restrictions or even consultations with close allies in Europe. It is also that this may serve as the final nail in the non-proliferation coffin. Countries that do not have nuclear weapons — Ukraine or Iran — face existential threats while those that have them — North Korea and Israel — behave with impunity under their nuclear umbrella. The only conclusion that many other countries can arrive at is that they need an effective nuclear programme to ensure their long-term security against threats, invasions and airstrikes from nuclear-armed adversaries. Not all new members of the nuclear club are likely to be as responsible about their doctrine or nuclear safety as India has been. In other words, Mr Trump has, through this one decision, made it likely that Iran will double down on its nuclear efforts — and ensured that many other countries will follow in its wake.