End of Battling Begums: Khaleda Zia's death may reshape Bangladesh polls

Khaleda Zia's passing reshapes Bangladesh's political landscape, reviving the BNP's prospects and testing New Delhi's recalibrated ties ahead of pivotal February elections

The death of Begum Khaleda Zia, Bangladesh’s first woman Prime Minister, has added a new dynamic to the country’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for February 12. Her death brings to an end a long phase of Bangladesh politics in which she and Sheikh Hasina, popularly dubbed “the Battling Begums”, vied for power in a high-profile standoff. Now, after being in limbo for 15 years under Sheikh Hasina’s systematic anti-corruption campaign against it, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), which Begum Zia led after her husband’s assassination in 1981, has emerged as a credible contender to gain a majority in the Jatiya Sangsad. 

Though her party had faced fluctuating fortunes in elections in the past, Begum Zia herself remained a popular figure, winning all the seats she contested since 1991. As Prime Minister, she presided over the transition from a presidential to parliamentary system of government and upgraded the taxation system by introducing value-added tax. But her authoritarian style and allegations of corruption and dodgy deal-making linked to her son Tarique Rahman dimmed her party’s popularity to the advantage of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. With Tarique Rahman returning from a 17-year exile to take over the reins at the BNP and the Awami League out of the electoral equation, the political landscape has shifted. 

The contest now is between two former allies, the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, ending a decades-old alliance. The centre-right BNP’s promise to build an inclusive Bangladesh irrespective of religion is at odds with the Jamaat’s Islamic fundamentalism, which appeared to have gathered traction after the assassination of a prominent anti-Indian youth leader and escalating communal violence. In earlier elections, the Jamaat garnered only a handful of seats. But recent opinion polls had suggested the party, which was created after the partition of Pakistan and developed a strong anti-Indian stance after the 1971 War of Liberation, had gained in popularity since 2024. But earlier this week, 30 leaders of the student-led National Citizen Party, which had spearheaded the movement for Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, have opposed an electoral alliance with the Jamaat on grounds that the latter did not conform to its party values.  It is possible, therefore, that apart from an anticipated sympathy vote, an increasingly fragmented Opposition may work in the BNP’s favour. 

Unlike the strong ties New Delhi enjoyed with Sheikh Hasina, relations with Begum Zia and the BNP were often tricky. There have been spurts of personal cordiality but constant tensions owing to the BNP’s ties with the Jamaat, the free run her government allowed for northeastern insurgents, denying India transit rights, and a refusal to renew the 1972 friendship treaty. Since Sheikh Hasina’s exile to India, however, the Indian government has taken care to reach out to the BNP. Official contacts were resumed in September last year, when the Indian high commissioner officially met senior BNP leaders in Dhaka. India’s statement that it would view Mr Rahman’s return to Dhaka in the context of “free, fair and inclusive” elections in Bangladesh signalled a willingness to further its agenda of protecting Hindu minorities and deepening traditional political and economic ties. The Prime Minister’s condolence message and the fact that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar attended Begum Zia’s funeral add to this momentum. The February elections will determine how this diplomatic thaw will play out.