External risks: Trade and capital flows to impact economic growth

The developments in the US can affect the Indian economy through different channels. It will not only be critical to watch the kind of trade deal offered to India

There is hope one day and confusion the next. As the July 9 deadline approaches, it is difficult to say with certainty whether India and the United States (US) will be able to reach a mutually beneficial bilateral-trade agreement in time. The policy approach adopted by the US has not only disrupted the global trade order, but there has also been a significant upheaval in global financial markets. The dollar, for instance, has lost over 10 per cent against a basket of currencies in the first half of 2025. Besides US trade policies, geopolitical tensions have increased external risks. The