Nepal on the brink: Ruling elites increasingly out of sync with the people

Nepal's youth-led protests, triggered by a sweeping social media ban, have exposed deep political and economic rot, forcing PM Oli's resignation and leaving the country at a crossroads

The violence that brought Nepal to a standstill may have caught the ruling establishment off guard but the crisis has been brewing for at least a decade. At its core is the deep-rooted frustration of the Nepal youth at the government’s inability to deliver economic growth and job opportunities, a predicament worsened by corruption, which afflicts almost every facet of Nepalese public life. More than half of Nepal’s population is under the age of 30. This important demographic, which pointedly identified itself as GenZ at the protests in Kathmandu, is better-educated and has better exposure to global developments. With the country having a considerable internet-user base, it is no surprise that the protests, which initially began as peaceful demonstrations by students before being overwhelmed by lumpen elements, began over the government’s decision last week to ban 26 media platforms. The ostensible reason for this sweeping proscription was that these platforms, which included WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook, had failed to meet a deadline to register with Nepal’s Ministry of Communication and Information Technology. 

Though the ban provided the spark, the violent response to it — leaving some 20 dead — betrayed a comprehensive misreading of ground realities by the ruling elites. This misjudgement in itself reflects the profound structural deficiencies in the power dynamics of the democratic republic. The ruling coalition between the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the Nepali Congress, the two largest parties, represented a well-entrenched and ageing oligarchy, which had been increasingly out of sync with its people. Between them, these elites have revolved in and out of power. Khadga Prasad Oli, 73, who abruptly resigned as Prime Minister following the violence, had been elected in 2024 and was serving a fourth term. He came to power after his party withdrew support to a coalition headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, “Prachanda”, 70, who had had three stints as Prime Minister. The latest power-sharing arrangement involved Mr Oli holding a rotating prime ministership until the next general election in 2027 with the Nepali Congress’ Sher Bahadur Deuba, 78, a five-term Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the economy heavily depends on remittances, which account for roughly a fourth of Nepal’s gross domestic product. They are largely from India, which has, incidentally, enjoyed a rare reprieve from the habitual blame game that the Himalayan state indulges in. 

With the army stepping in to reimpose law and order and tipping an ex-jurist as interim Prime Minister, Nepal’s future hangs in the balance. The established parties have patently failed. A return to monarchy, ousted in 2008, is unlikely, although its representative, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, has escaped protestors’ ire. Two popular contenders who represent a generational shift in Nepalese politics are waiting in the wings. One is Balen Shah, 35, a former rapper and a highly successful mayor of Kathmandu. The other is Rabi Lamichhane, 51, a TV host and former minister who had been jailed for corruption and then freed following attacks on the prison. How far the establishment will take a bet on them is unclear.