Pak Field Marshal Munir is toying with nuclear fire, India must not blink

Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, who was recently raised to the rank of field marshal, has created waves with his second visit to the United States (US) in as many months. On his last visit, he was granted lunch with President Donald Trump, a privilege that Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has not yet enjoyed. This visit, supposedly to commemorate the retirement of the head of the US military’s central command (Centcom), comes at a time when the Pakistan establishment is feeling particularly secure in its domestic and geopolitical position. But that does not provide sufficient reason for the reports that have emerged of General Munir’s statements and overall demeanour during his visit to Tampa, Florida, the location of US Centcom headquarters. It cannot be known what General Munir said on this trip, and much of the reporting of his statements has not been backed up or confirmed by official sources. What has emerged is nevertheless disquieting from the point of view of peace and stability in South Asia.

 

It may be the case that the Pakistani military is satisfied with its performance in the military actions that took place in May as retaliation for the terrorist attack on Pahalgam in April this year. The generals might also feel that the security situation, as well as their successful domestic propaganda campaign following the confrontation, has strengthened their control of Pakistan’s politics. Nevertheless, it would be unwise for them to give in to misplaced overconfidence. Successive Indian responses to cross-border terrorism over the past decade have moved up in impact and scale. Further escalation is clearly not in Pakistan’s interests. A rational approach would be to step back and consolidate at this point. There is more than enough work required on Pakistan’s flailing economy to absorb the energies of the country’s establishment for the next several years. However, the current leadership of the Pakistan military — and Gen Munir in particular — have a troubling addiction to bombast and overconfidence. It would indeed be unfortunate if some of the unconfirmed statements from Gen Munir about Pakistan’s nuclear posture are an accurate reflection of its current strategic thinking. If so, they do not demonstrate the maturity required of a nuclear power.

 

Indian decision-makers will have to be on high alert over the coming months. A Pakistan that is more secure in its relations with the US — which seems to be the case, given Gen Munir’s repeated visits to that country, and Mr Trump’s warm words about it as well as the favourable trade deal the two have negotiated — is also one that might well wish to indulge in another cross-border misadventure. New Delhi will have to demonstrate not just watchfulness, but also restraint and responsibility. It might begin to do so by properly investigating the security lapses that led to the Pahalgam attack and minimising the chances that such an outrage could be allowed to happen again. As a mature and reliable nuclear power, India will unfortunately have to go the extra mile to ensure that Pakistan’s intemperate leadership is not permitted to set the agenda for the subcontinent.