The future of INDIA

The Congress will need to be more accommodative

At its last meeting on September 1 in Mumbai, the Opposition bloc comprising parties under the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc had “resolved” to initiate seat-sharing arrangements “immediately”, concluding it at the earliest in “a collaborative spirit of give and take”; organise joint public rallies across the country on issues of public concern; and coordinate communications, media strategies, and campaigns. The Congress, the biggest and the only party in the alliance with a nationwide electoral footprint — also the leading player from the alliance in the five state Assembly polls held in November — reneged on all. The alliance, as a result, could not move forward for nearly three months. Clearly, Congress strategists had expected the party to win at least three of the five states, adding to its victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, to allow it to negotiate seat sharing with other INDIA constituents from a position of strength. In fact, its Madhya Pradesh state unit chief Kamal Nath first rejected Trinamool Congress Chairperson Mamata Banerjee's suggestion to hold a joint rally in Bhopal and further dented unity efforts with his indecorous response to the Samajwadi Party’s request for seat adjustment.

Following its defeat in the Hindi heartland states, leaders of some of the Congress’ regional allies publicly vented their frustration against it and excused themselves from a meeting called by party president Mallikarjun Kharge on December 6, forcing the meeting to be deferred. Mr Kharge and his team will now have to take the lead in bringing everyone back to the negotiation table. The Congress has consoled itself with a win in Telangana, and wisely reined in party leaders who took to speaking of a “north versus south” divide. But it still seems helpless in the face of irresponsible claims by its senior leaders of electronic voting machine tampering. These will not help the party. It must also recognise that its Bharat Jodo Yatra perhaps had little resonance in the Hindi heartland states, and its campaign’s leitmotif — the promise for a caste census — had none. The party couldn’t talk stridently about livelihood issues, especially inflation and the jobs crisis, something the INDIA bloc had agreed to do in its meetings.

It is worth noting that state elections were an excellent opportunity for the Congress to strengthen the alliance — it had the most to gain — but it ended up doing the opposite. For instance, according to a study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, published in The Hindu, the Congress in Rajasthan suffered at least 30 seats by refusing to share seats or ally with sub-regional parties like the Bharat Adivasi Party. There is some truth in the reasoning that, as electoral history since December 2003 has shown, winning the last round of Assembly polls before the Lok Sabha elections is no guarantee of a repeat five months later. But the INDIA alliance, particularly the Congress party, must accept that the 2024 challenge is growing larger with each passing day. Therefore, if they wish to have any chance next year, the Congress and the alliance must quickly settle all issues, draw up an alternative agenda, and create a cohesive campaign. None of this will be easy, and the distance the alliance eventually covers will to a large extent depend on the accommodative capabilities of the Congress, both in terms of seats and issues.