To 2024 and beyond

India's future depends on addressing basic issues

Independence Day speeches by Prime Ministers from the ramparts of the Red Fort in Delhi have always served multiple purposes. They have laid out a policy pathway for the future, addressed specific ongoing political issues, and made a case for the incumbent government’s priorities and performance. Some, however, have been more political than others — often when a general election is looming on the horizon. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech on Tuesday was unquestionably one of those speeches. He made a case for his government’s achievements since it was elected in 2014, and laid out three “evils” for India to eradicate in the coming years that clearly hearkened back to the original impetus for his 2014 campaign. He also linked the presence of a stable and trusted government with a majority in New Delhi to India’s efforts to secure a more prominent place in the world — arguing by implication that without such a government, which only he could provide, India’s global rise would be hampered.

It is important to note, however, that Mr Modi began his speech by addressing the troubles in the state of Manipur. There was no attempt to minimise the importance or scope of the violence that had occurred there. The Prime Minister did, however, say that reports of violence had been diminishing in recent days; it is to be hoped that this does not signify complacency that efforts by the government to address the causes of the violence have been sufficient. The main thrust of the opening part of his speech, however, was that India had emerged from “1,000 years of slavery” and was poised to regain a lost golden age. The source of this possibility, according to the Prime Minister, was India’s demographic dividend: While other countries age, India is relatively young. He pointed out that, in areas such as the startup sector, India’s youth is a great advantage.

He also identified, however, the need to empower India’s women further as a source of general prosperity and development. The emphasis on young people and women is commendable. Here the paths forward for India are clouded, however, by continuing problems with mass education, skilling, and labour force participation. India has not been successful in expanding access to skills far enough for its young people. And female labour force participation is one of the lowest in the world and has not shown significant signs of increasing rapidly. It remains one of India’s biggest weaknesses, affecting economic prospects. This needs to be carefully addressed.

The speech ended with a discussion of the three “evils” of corruption, nepotism or dynastic politics, and “appeasement”. The Prime Minister did not shy away from blaming the “party of the family, by the family, and for the family” for India’s problems. These are familiar political themes from 2014, but seem perhaps a little out of place in 2023, when the Congress is hardly the political force it was then. The victory of 2014 was born out of successfully claiming that development was the opposite of “corruption, nepotism, and appeasement”. Another victory might be achieved by repeating that theme. But the grand targets set for the next 25 — and indeed 1,000 — years might need work on more mundane issues such as education, health, skilling, and gender empowerment.