 "shiv sena, balasaheb thackeray")
In most states, the outcome of an election is considered politically decisive when politics settles down and governance takes over. But it’s not the case in Maharashtra, which saw two sets of elections in quick succession (Lok Sabha polls in May 2024 and the Assembly elections in November). The results were dramatically different, which could be one reason why political waters in the state continue to roil.
Consider the numbers for the two polls (see chart). If extrapolated to state Assembly segments, the Lok Sabha results suggest that the BJP would have won just 78 Assembly seats, while the Shiv Sena would have secured 40, the NCP four, the Congress 63, the SS (UBT) 57, and the NCP (SP) 33. And yet, it was the BJP that formed the government with alliance partner Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, with the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis becoming chief minister.
“This is the problem. Shinde believes he was the one who led the BJP to victory, powered in part by the Ladki Bahin scheme (direct cash transfers of ₹1,500 every month to around 23.4 million women between the ages of 21 and 65 earning less than ₹2.5 lakh a year). But it was Fadnavis of the BJP who walked away with the prize,” says former Maharashtra chief minister and Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan, who contested the Assembly elections and lost.
Between then and now, relations between Shinde and Fadnavis have reportedly strained. “Fadnavis has removed most of Shinde’s men from important positions. This is causing Shinde and his supporters great heartburn,” says Chavan, pointing to a Thane builder who, during Shinde’s term, was made an advisor to the CM on urban development, given Cabinet rank, and an office in the state government complex.
“When Fadnavis became the CM, this gentleman was sacked and advised to relocate to avoid enquiries. He is now in Dubai,” Chavan adds.
The Pahalgam killings, which claimed six lives from Maharashtra, was an occasion of one-upmanship between Fadnavis and Shinde. Fadnavis deputed senior minister Girish Mahajan to Kashmir to help the families return and deputed ministers to assist when they landed in Mumbai and Pune. But within hours, Shinde deputed his own colleagues to the airports and took the next flight out to Srinagar, presumably to micromanage logistics personally.
This is not the only political rejig happening in the state. In June 2023, Maharashtra doyen Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar split, with Ajit claiming the Nationalist Congress Party. It was a messy and bitter parting of ways, not just for the family but also for their supporters.
Over the past two weeks, the two leaders have met thrice, the latest occasion being April 21 at the Vasantdada Sugar Complex in Pune, where they discussed the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in agriculture to improve harvest outcomes, before moving to a closed-door meeting that lasted two hours and involved only a few advisors.
When asked, NCP MP and Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule told reporters: “They keep meeting over work.” When pressed, she added: “I haven’t heard of any proposal of (re)merger. But whatever both leaders decide, I am bound to accept it.” They have had family meetings, such as the engagement celebration of a nephew.
A similar parting of ways, albeit nearly two decades ago, took place in the Shiv Sena between cousins Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, the latter going on to form his own party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
During an interview with filmmaker Mahesh Manjrekar last week, Raj offered to set aside his differences with Uddhav for the greater good of Maharashtra. Uddhav, too, has shown willingness to bury the hatchet, particularly regarding the three-languages-Hindi controversy.
The MNS has strongly opposed the introduction of Hindi as a means of official communication. At his Gudi Padwa rally on March 30, Raj reiterated his party’s stance of making Marathi mandatory for official purposes, warning that those who deliberately refuse to speak the language would be “slapped”. Although Uddhav has been less aggressive, his stance on the language issue mirrors his cousin’s.
The MNS is not seen as a major political force. Its vote share remained low, and Raj’s son Amit lost the Assembly election from Mahim. However, Raj is considered politically sharper. Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut told Business Standard earlier in the week that there has been no announcement of an alliance between his party and the MNS, but that "emotional talks" are ongoing. According to a PTI report on Sunday, leaders of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS have said that though it is a promising prospect, personal ties and organisational synergy are hurdles that need to be overcome.
Dhaval Kulkarni, author of The Cousins Thackeray, says this is not the first initiative for a family rapprochement. The first was in 2010, with Balasaheb’s blessings, but it came to nought. Similar moves were made in 2014 and 2017. “But this is the first time Raj has made overtures and Uddhav has reciprocated. This suggests how much of an existential threat both face in politics,” says Kulkarni.
The base of all the factions of the Shiv Sena is shrinking: in Girgaum region as well as Goregaon and Shirdi Assembly segments, it is the BJP that has posted victories. “The younger voter in Maharashtra is more cosmopolitan. He finds the vision of the BJP more attractive. The Marathi Manoos appeal is beginning to have less resonance. Besides, the demographic character of Maharashtra is also changing, leading to political demands of a different kind from voters," he adds.
Much now hinges on the local body elections in Maharashtra, which have been overdue for three or four years, depending on the city. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections, for instance, were due in 2022. “Right now, it is bureaucrats who are running these corporations,” Chavan says.
All analysts agree that changes in political alignments could affect the outcome of these polls. In turn, these outcomes could dictate the future trajectory of Maharashtra’s politics.
