 "Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal (Photo: PTI)")
With still a year to go, the countdown to the West Bengal Assembly elections has begun, as seen from the flurry of political activity in the state over the recent weeks.
Tensions have remained high following the eruption of violence in Murshidabad over the Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2025. The unrest has claimed at least three lives and drawn nationwide attention, sparking a fierce exchange of accusations between the BJP and the ruling Trinamool Congress.
According to the 2011 Census, Murshidabad’s population comprised 66.27 per cent Muslims and 33.21 per cent Hindus. In the violence on April 12, an attack by a mob left Hargobind Das and his son Chandan dead, while a 17-year-old, Ejaz Ahmed Sheikh, was killed in subsequent police firing. Reports suggest that at least 400 people have been displaced in the wake of the unrest.
On the instructions of the Calcutta High Court, paramilitary forces were deployed in the district. The state government also ordered an inquiry, suspended police officials, filed cases against the accused, and arrested over 260 people. A team from the National Commission for Women and the Governor of West Bengal, C V Ananda Bose, have visited the area, both visits drawing criticism from the Trinamool.
In April-May 2026, four states —including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and BJP-ruled Assam — as well as the Union Territory of Puducherry, will go to the polls. Furthermore, Assembly elections are scheduled in Bihar by October-November this year.
Of the major states north of the Vindhyas, Bengal remains one of the last frontiers for the BJP, after its victory in Odisha in May 2024.
The BJP came close to pipping the Trinamool Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, with just four seats and 3 percentage points separating the two. Since then, as evident in the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 general elections, the Trinamool has steadily consolidated its hold, eroding the support base of the Left Front and the Congress, particularly among the state’s Muslim population, which stood at 27 per cent according to the 2011 Census. The popularity of Trinamool’s leader, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, particularly among women voters, has played a crucial role.
However, the recent violence in Murshidabad threatens to trigger communal polarisation, something the Banerjee-led Trinamool fears it may struggle to contain. On Saturday, Banerjee issued an appeal for peace, accusing the BJP and its allies, including the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, of “divide and rule” strategy. She condemned the riots, confirmed that those responsible were being dealt with strictly, and announced that police officers had been punished for negligence. The chief minister urged citizens to uphold the ideals of Ramakrishna and Swami Vivekananda’s “universal religion” and Rabindranath Tagore’s message of fraternity.
On Sunday, BJP leader and the party’s Bengal co-incharge, Amit Malviya, dismissed Banerjee’s peace appeal as hollow. He criticised her for not visiting refugee camps in Malda, where, he said, Hindu men and women had fled following persecution in Murshidabad. “Who exactly is she seeking peace for?” Malviya asked. In a post on social media platform X, Malviya alleged that West Bengal remained one of the most unsafe states for women, citing the RG Kar Hospital rape and murder case in August 2024, and the Sandeshkhali incident. “The women of Bengal no longer want the poison of Lakshmi Bhandar —they simply want to be free of her oppressive rule. We heard the same cry from the riot-ravaged women of Murshidabad too,” Malviya said.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, 40 women —or 14 per cent of the total MLAs —were elected, of which 33 represented the Trinamool and the remaining seven came from the BJP. According to Kaberi Chakrabarti, an academic at the University of Calcutta, Banerjee secured one of her most decisive victories in 2021 by successfully countering a national force like the BJP with her distinctive appeal to ethno-cultural sentiment as “Banglar meye” — the daughter of Bengal —and through grassroots campaigns such as “Didi ke bolo (Talk to Didi)”. She framed the electoral contest as one against bohiragato, or outsiders.
Her recent appeals to the “universal religion” of Ramakrishna-Vivekananda and the humanist ideals of Tagore are part of an effort to reaffirm Bengali identity. This was evident when Banerjee inaugurated a new skywalk at the iconic Kalighat temple on the eve of the Bengali New Year. She is also set to inaugurate a Jagannath temple in the coastal town of Digha on April 30.
Alongside these symbolic gestures, her government has announced plans to extend a fresh round of welfare schemes.
The state Budget presented in mid-February increased allocations for Lakshmir Bhandar, the government’s flagship women’s welfare scheme, which provides direct cash transfers to women aged between 25 and 60. According to PRS Legislative Research, expenditure on the scheme is projected to grow at an annual rate of 47 per cent from 2021-22 to 2025-26. In the financial year 2025-26 alone, spending is expected to exceed ₹26,000 crore. In 2021-22, the state had spent 3 per cent of its revenue receipts on Lakshmir Bhandar, a figure set to rise to 10 per cent in 2025-26, the analysis said. In the 2024-25 Budget, the government had already announced an increase in the transfer amount under the scheme. Other women-centric initiatives include Swabalamban, Rupashree and Kanyashree, while funding for the health insurance scheme Swasthya Sathi has also been enhanced.
As the 2021 post-poll analysis by Lokniti showed, and the 2024 Lok Sabha results confirmed, Banerjee continues to enjoy popularity among marginalised women voters. The BJP is banking on the RG Kar rape case and the Murshidabad violence to erode that support ahead of the Assembly polls. Yet, with the decline of the Congress and Left in Bengal and the consolidated backing of minority communities for Banerjee and the Trinamool — particularly in the aftermath of the Waqf Act row — the BJP faces significant challenges.
Eye on POLLS
4% DA hike for govt employees in state Budget tabled in February
* On the eve of Bengali New Year, West Bengal CM Banerjee inaugurated Kolkata’s longest skywalk
* On April 21, the CM will lay foundation stone for ₹16,000 crore 1,600 Mw JSW Energy thermal plant at Salboni
* She will inaugurate Jagannath Temple in Digha on April 30
