Brace up! Cyclone Phailin: know your basics

Tens of thousands flee as a severe cyclonic storm is set to hit the Bay of Bengal

Cyclonic storm Phailin is expected to make landfall by Saturday evening. Here is what you need to know about the cyclone:

Where and when is Cyclone Phailin likely to hit?

Phailin will hit coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa, but heavy rains and thunder showers will be experienced by most areas of the two states. The islands of Andaman and Nicobar are also expected to be affected. The cyclone is expected to hit Indian shores between Kalingapatnam in Andhra and Paradip in Orissa by the evening of October 12, but gusts are expected from the morning itself. Coastal areas in Andhra Pradesh are already reporting rough seas and heavy rains. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier expected the wind speed of Phailin to be limited to 185 kmph, but has scaled up the intensity to a maximum speed of 205-215 kmph.

Could it spread beyond Andhra Pradesh and Orissa?

The Washington Post quoted qz.com meteorologist Eric Holthaus as saying that, “A worst case scenario would have Phailin tracking slightly eastward of its current forecasted track, toward Kolkata and the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh, which is home to tens of millions of people living just a few meters above sea level.”

Is it a super cyclone?

The IMD has called it a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’. Meteorologists are pegging it to be the strongest tropical storm worldwide this year. But contrary to certain media reports, it is not yet being called a super cyclone. Cyclones with a speed above 220 kmph are considered super cyclones, but with a height of 2.5 to 3 metre Phailin could flood low-lying districts in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh and cause widespread damage. Zee News has also quoted the Orissa Special Relief Commissioner as saying Phailin would be “no less than the 1999 super cyclone”.

How bad could it be?

A large scale disruption on power and communications lines is expected. Rail and road transport could take a hit. Damage to public infrastructure, houses and crops is also likely. Farmers are being asked to speed up harvest of ready crop to avoid damage. Reports suggest the cyclone could be half the size of India, equivalent to Hurricane Katrina,  the destructive tropical cyclone of 2005 that crippled cities like New Orleans in Louisiana.

Are authorities well prepared?

Reports suggest that Defence Minister AK Antony has asked the forces to remain prepared for emergency relief efforts. Indian Air Force choppers are on standby in West Bengal. Arrangements have been made by the Orissa government for over 100,000 food packets. Families in low lying areas of Orissa have already been moved and many more will be shifted out through the course of the day. The Andhra Pradesh chief minister is also reviewing the state’s preparedness to deal with any potential catastrophe while Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has assured that the government is prepared and there is no need for panic.

What happened in 1999?

A super cyclone hit Orissa for 30 hours with speeds that reached 300 kmph, killing 15,000 people. “26 out of the 35 deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms,” reports Washington Post, quoting Wunderground metereologist Jeff Masters. He adds: “During the past two centuries, 42% of earth’s tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India.”