Decoded: Why the fear of a second coronavirus wave in India is real

Europe is now suffering from a second wave of the Sars-CoV-2 virus attack

What is a second Sars-CoV-2 wave?

A second wave is a phenomenon of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first, and then the infections appear to go down. But then, the infections rise in a different part of the population, resulting in what is commonly known as a second wave of infections.

Europe, for example, is now suffering from a second wave of the Sars-CoV-2 virus attack. The level of infections started rising after restrictions were significantly eased during summer. Many countries are now forced to re-introduce targeted, localised restrictions, though not a complete national lockdown.

In March 1918, for instance, the first wave of Spanish Flu was observed. It was towards the end of the First World War, and the soldiers returning to their countries carried it to many continents. By July, the first wave had subsided, only to return around September. Observers have noted that the second wave was more deadly with higher number of deaths. Within months, it is said the US reported 300,000 deaths and India around 20 million.

What may have caused the second wave in the West?

The second wave is a likely result of what we may call “restriction fatigue”. The UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands have all seen a sharp rise in cases since late August-early September, and Germany and Italy are now witnessing a sharp rise in cases. In fact, back in May, Andrea Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, had commented that the question wasn’t whether there would be a renewed surge, but when and how big it would be.

Unfortunately, the second wave peaks are higher than the first wave. In the first wave, UK had reported a daily peak of around 7,860 cases (April), which is now around 20,000 daily cases in October. According to the BBC, there are over 1,000 daily admissions in hospitals in the UK, which is 10 times the rate at the end of summer.

Are Indian authorities fearing a second wave?

Yes, India is fearing a second wave of infections and the signs can already be spotted. Delhi, for example, suddenly saw a spurt in cases in mid-October. The government is trying to strategise fresh containment measures. The health ministry has said that a combination of factors is responsible for this spurt in cases: The festive season and greater socialising, opening up of public places and the onset of winter in the north are possibly to blame. On top of this, restriction fatigue and an increasingly nonchalant approach towards wearing masks is another contributing factor.

India is the world’s second worst affected country with cases crossing the eight-million mark. The upcoming festive and winter season is likely to spike the cases further. Dileep Mavalankar, director, Indian Institute of Public Health, says the risky behaviour is likely to continue in the coming months. “It is not only the people out shopping for flowers, idols, artefacts and gifts who are throwing caution to the wind. Meeting friends and relatives also increases the risk of infection. One needs to start an active campaign to encourage the symptomatic to stay indoors.” The worry, point out experts, is that almost 85 per cent of the cases now getting reported are asymptomatic.

What effect will winter have on the virus?

According to a study by the University of California, Santa Barbara, the Sars-CoV-2 virus tends to survive longer in colder temperatures. The infection didn’t come down in summer; in countries like India, it continued to climb. Researchers have also found that respiratory droplets travel longer distances than the six-foot social distance recommended by many public health organisations. In addition to this, they tend to persist longer in colder temperatures. In hot and dry weather, the respiratory droplets evaporate faster. Experts thus feel that in winter, the droplet contact can be dangerous, while in summers the aerosol transmission was the prime risk.

Some, however, feel that the Indian winter is milder, and Indian homes do not have central heating systems. The world is yet to see a Covid-19 winter and so the link cannot be clearly established yet. However, like any pandemic, there will be a second wave. And festivities across the globe — for instance, Diwali, Christmas, New Year — are likely to contribute to a spike in cases.