Monsoon to remain weak in August-September: IMD

Strong El Nino will continue to play the spoiler

India’s southwest monsoon in the remaining two months of the four-month season, that is in August and September, is expected to be below normal at 84 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) as El Niño weather conditions have strengthened in the past few months, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)  said on Monday. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus eight per cent.  

“The latest forecast from ESSO-IMD and IITM coupled model indicates 72 per cent probability of El Niño conditions to become strong during the remaining part of the monsoon season,” the Met department said in its statement. There is 86 per cent chance of rainfall being below normal in the second half, IMD said.

For the full season (June to September) IMD has retained its June forecast of rains being 88 per cent of the LPA, which is deficient. For August, the Met department said that rainfall is expected to be 90 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus nine per cent, same as June’s forecast.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet, too, lowered its full season forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season from 102 per cent of LPA to 98 per cent, with a model error of plus and minus four per cent.

“Taking cognisance of the July rains and the updated forecast for August and September, we are revising the monsoon forecast to 98 per cent of LPA from 102 per cent,” said Jatin Singh, chief executive officer, Skymet. For August, Skymet said that rains would be 92 per cent of LPA and for September it would be 112 per cent of LPA. These forecasts are with a model error of plus and minus nine per cent.

The southwest monsoon entered India after a delay of almost five days in June, but then picked up pace and covered the entire country ahead of schedule. In June, the country received 16 per cent surplus rains. This not only aided sowing of kharif crops, but also belied fears of a widespread drought across the country.

“With this forecast, sowing of kharif crops could only get impacted in those areas where it had not rained adequately so far like Marathwada, Telangana etc. The final harvest of certain crops like coarse cereals and pulses might get impacted if rains are not sufficient in August and September. Though, I feel the situation is not alarming,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Rating. The momentum in rains continued though there were occasional breaks in between. Even though July ended with a shortfall of almost 15 per cent, because of spread and distribution of the showers, there was no let-up in sowing.

According to data from the department of agriculture till July 31, kharif crops have been planted in about 76.42 million hectares, which is 8.64 per cent more than the corresponding period last year.

TAKING A RAIN CHECK

• For the full season (June-September) IMD has retained its June forecast of rains being 88 per cent of the LPA, which is deficient
   
• For August, the Met department said that rainfall is expected to be 90 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus nine per cent, same as June’s forecast
   
• Private weather forecasting agency Skymet too lowered its full season forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season from 102 per cent of LPA to 98 per cent, with a model error of plus and minus four per cent