JD(U)-BJP alliance heading for a split

With the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance at loggerheads over Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi being projected as Prime Ministerial candidate, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is eyeing its own revival in Bihar.

Senior BJP have conceded the JD(U)-BJP alliance is heading for a break-up, both in Bihar and nationally. “Sometimes, it becomes inevitable. When a political party passes a resolution, then it is beyond a matter of loss or gain,” said a BJP leader, referring to the tenor of the JD(U)’s resolutions over the weekend at the party’s meeting here.

As if in response, senior BJP leaders in Bihar — health minister Ashwini Chaubey and animal husbandry minister Giriraj Singh — asked party president Rajnath Singh that Modi be allowed to visit Bihar.

The RJD, keenly watching the developments, says it’ll expose Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar’s pseudo-secular credentials.

RJD claims says despite its poor performance in the 2010 assembly elections, scoring just 22 seats, it retained its hold over the 17 per cent Muslim vote in the state.

“The JD(U) is engaging in political gimmickry to confuse the voter - in this case, the Muslim voter. If he (Nitish Kumar) is so secular, why has he given the BJP time till year-end?” RJD leader in the Rajya Sabha Prem Chand Gupta told Business Standard.

Kumar is facing criticism from BJP, too. BJP spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi said, “Kumar was with the BJP through the 2002 riots in Gujarat and even later. So it does not lie in the mouth of a leader like him to now criticise Narendra Modi’s conduct.”

The Congress, which has just four seats in the assembly, however remains tightlipped about the ongoing developments. Refusing to respond on whether it views the RJD as its “natural ally”, Congress spokesperson Rashid Alvi said the A K Antony committee on alliances will take a view on whether to have a pre-election alliance or enter into one after the elections.

RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav has never forgiven the Congress for refusing to enter into a seat-adjustment deal before the 2010 assembly elections. According to Yadav, had the Congress agreed to do a deal with the RJD, the Muslims would also have stayed in the RJD-Congress fold, and never decamped to JD(U).

The way fault lines are developing in Bihar, the divide is going to be secular versus communal rather than upper caste versus backward caste.

Kumar believes this discourse has more traction and can be influenced in his favour. But the RJD says the conflict is between those pretending to be secular and those who really are.

It is not yet clear who holds the whip hand in Bihar. The RJD will hold a ‘parivartan rally’ on May 15, to be followed by the BJP’s ‘Hunkar rally’ in October. That is when political trajectories will become clearer