Modi may sweep Gujarat again: Opinion poll

ABP News-AC Nielsen survey projects BJP getting 47% votes, 124 of the 182 seats

If the ABP News-AC Nielsen opinion poll is anything to go by, two-time Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi, could record a landslide victory in December’s Assembly elections.

The opinion poll, conducted across 91 Assembly constituencies between October 16 and 29, suggests the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strongman could bag 124 of the 182 seats — more than a two-third majority. It shows 62 per cent of the state’s voters also want to see Modi playing a key role on the national scene in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Modi baiters — Keshubhai Patel of the newly formed Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) and rebel BJP member Kannubhai Kalsaria — look unlikely to make a significant dent in the Gujarat chief minister’s prospects. They might, instead, end up damaging the Congress’ chances by dividing the anti-Modi votes. Congress representation in the Assembly could fall to 51 from 59 in 2007, even as it might maintain its 38 per cent vote share.

Though the BJP’s vote share could fall to 47 per cent from 49.12 per cent in 2007, the opinion poll indicates, its number of seats could go up. The state has only 26 Lok Sabha seats but, the poll also shows, 53 per cent of the Gujarat voters would want Modi to lead his party in Delhi for the Lok Sabha polls.

A renewed mandate for Modi — giving him a third consecutive term at the helm of the state — is likely to consolidate his position within the national party.

According to the opinion poll, though the Congress’ vote share will remain intact, its share of seats might come down, deflating its hopes of strengthening itself through the Assembly polls in the state. In fact, a desperate Congress is fielding many of its sitting MPs as candidates for the state elections to counter Modi’s chances. If the actual results turn out to be in line with the projections of the opinion poll, the Congress’ advantage in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, when it won 11 seats in the state against BJP’s 15, could be lost.

Given the Congress’ weak performance in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls under scion Rahul Gandhi’s baton, a repeat poor show in Gujarat would not augur well for the party, which is wary of the public perceiving these polls as dress rehearsal for the 2014 grand battle.

Keshubhai’s GPP is projected to win three seats with a vote share of two per cent.

Going by regions, the BJP is seen winning 39 of the 54 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch, while the Congress could get only 11. Of the 40 seats in central Gujarat, BJP could win 20, against Congress’ 18. Of the northern Gujarat’s 53 seats, the ABP News-Nielsen poll sees BJP winning 39 and Congress 14. BJP is seen sweeping southern Gujarat, bagging 26 of the 35 seats, while Congress could get only eight.

The poll predictions show, Arvind Kejriwal’s foray into politics does not seem to have caught the imagination of many; only 15 per cent agree they would support him or vote against the party he campaigns against.